Monday, 14 April 2008
Could Obama really win Reagan Democrats?
The media has been so resolutely pro-Obama in recent months that it affects surprise that Hillary Clinton is still running (even though she is still very much in the running, depending on what happens in Pennsylvania and Indiana, let alone the votes of Florida and Michigan Democrats). Yet this weekend's revelations of Obama's views about the sort of conservative Democrat voters whose votes are essential to put a Democrat in the White House served merely to highlight what will become the Obama problem should he become the Democratic nominee. Despite a lot of tosh in the British media about how Obama has been reaching out to independent voters in ways that Clinton doesn't, in the swing states the votes that matter are those of the so-called Reagan Democrats (not uncommitted liberal college kids); Hillary has been winning their support and continues to do so. Contrary to popular mythology, the Clinton-Obama battle has been one of the mildest such contests in recent years. But do read The Politico for some of the real - and completely unsayable - reasons why Obama is not streets ahead of Clinton among leading Democrats.