Tuesday, 11 November 2008

Cameron's confusion helps the Brown bounce

Iain is terribly excited by Dave's latest wheeze on the economy. I'm not sure it will resonate very far with voters who have been distinctly underwhelmed by the McCain-like confusion with which Cameron and Osborne have treated the economy in recent months. If proof were needed, look no further than today's Populus poll for The Times. Not only does it show the lowest Tory lead over Labour for months at 41-35, it also shows that the voters don't trust the Tory duo on the economy, preferring Brown-Darling by a 20-point margin. If I were David Cameron, I would be most worried about the growing personal economic optimism, where people think their own prospects are better than those of the economy.

The poll also shows that Cameron is more popular as PM for the long-term by a margin of 42-35. Peter Riddell interprets this to mean that voters prefer Brown in a crisis, but Cameron in fair weather. Yet, when asked who represents Obama-style change, Cameron barely squeaks a four point lead. Rather than showing great enthusiasm for Dave in 2010, both these polling figures simply reflect the latest voting intentions, and show the remarkable recovery Brown has made in recent weeks. Gordon is right to say that the public want serious people for serious times. But there is no evidence to suggest that they are pining for lightweights when the good times return.

UPDATE: Labour Matters has a great rebuttal to Cameron's scheme from DWP minister Tony McNulty showing the astonishing financially illiteracy of Osborne's people. They seem completely to have ignored all the deadweight costs associated with their wheeze as well as the perverse incentives to keep people jobless longer than the norm.

1 comment:

Labour Matters said...

Conservative cheerleader Dale is very like McCain in one respect - he's admitted that economics isn't his strong suit. Perhaps we can forgive him for going all gooey-eyed over Cameron's latest wheeze then, given the figures don't add up:
http://www.labourmatters.com/the-labour-party/camerons-tax-cut-plan-to-reduce-unemployment-is-desperate-stuff/