Bertie's downfall - the verdict

Bertie Ahern, who announced that he is stepping down as Taoiseach in May, does a very full interview with the editor of today's Irish Sunday Independent. Part of it is self-justification, but it is a full account of where he sees things. But the best assessment of his time as Taoiseach comes from that master historian John A Murphy in a piece elsewhere in the paper. It is will worth reading.

The end of an era for Bertie Ahern and Irish politics

News that the Irish Prime Minister Bertie Ahern is to step down will surprise nobody who has been following the convoluted tribunal investigations into the Taoiseach's murky financial affairs, and many in his Fianna Fail party probably think his resignation should have come sooner; hopefully, after May 6th, Brian Cowen can restore some semblance of purpose to the coalition government. Bertie presided over the good times for the Celtic Tiger, but failed to make the necessary improvements in health and education that the largesse of the boom years allowed; now Ireland is facing the economic chill that has affected the US and Europe. Yet his single greatest achievement, as Jonathan Powell reflects in his new book, was with Tony Blair to the Northern Ireland peace process and the Good Friday Agreement, and for that he deserves great credit - few will forget his returning quickly from his mother's funeral to keep the process on track. Bertie survived 11 years in office, a remarkable stint only matched by Eamon DeValera. Perhaps it was inevitable that as the country's fortunes started to wane, his did too. It is the end of an era not only for Bertie, but for Irish politics.

Father Ted had nothing on Dustin

Irish people baffled by the latest twists and turns of the Bertie saga - he used money donated to Fianna Fail branch funds to subsidise a house for his girlfriend's aunt - can at least celebrate the emergence of true talent in Ireland's Eurovision entry. Father Ted fans who cheered the episode where My Lovely Horse was selected will have cause for true celebration when Dustin the Turkey takes to the stage in Belgrade this year.

A tale of two polities

Today's Irish Times poll suggests that the Taoiseach Bertie Ahern is suffering in personal popularity from the constant scrutiny of the tribunals and the media into his tax and financial affairs. Nevetheless, a plurality of voters think he should stay in office, and support for the governing parties has actually risen despite the story dominating the news for weeks. Unlike Peter Hain, whom nobody suggests has gained personally from any of his late-declared donations to his deputy leadership campaign, Bertie received an envelope stuffed with £8000 worth of £50 notes from friendly businessmen to help pay legal bills, which he regarded as 'no big deal', as well as significant other personal loans, while he was finance minister in the 1990s; as a result he had to give lengthy testimony to the Mahon corruption tribunal last year over several days. He has not managed to get a certificate of tax compliancy from the Revenue Commissioners this year. Yet, while the opposition leader Enda Kenny has been regularly calling for his resignation, his own Fianna Fail party and their allies in the Greens and Progressive Democrats, seem happy enough for him to stay on, although Finance Minister Brian Cowan has established himself as the leader-in-waiting, just in case. Bertie's response has been to attack the main Tribunal and his critics, playing the anti-establishment card beloved of the Fianna Fail establishment. But for all Bertie's travails, it is small beer compared to his mentor, the late Charlie Haughey's corrupt lifestyle. And Haughey was well out of politics before he was called to account, when it emerged that he had acquired over £8 million from business donors to finance his personal high-living expenses (which included a mansion and a private island). It does put things into perspective.

Ireland's Euro-doubters

Today's Irish Times suggests that Bertie Ahern - already facing sinking poll ratings, doubts over his story to the Tribunal, and anger at his huge recent pay rise - could face another headache which could become a headache for the whole of Europe. Most voters don't know how they will vote in the constitutionally-required referendum on the new EU Treaty, and only 25% say they will vote Yes (though No votes are lower at 13%). Having won billions to help create the Celtic Tiger, too many Irish people seem set on hindering similar growth in Eastern Europe, all to give beleaguered Bertie a bloody nose.

Bertie's spot of bother

Bertie Ahern's evidence on his financial affairs has failed to convince voters. Polling for the Irish Times has shown three in four voters are dissatisfied with his testimony to the Tribunal recently. That has translated into a polling boost for Fine Gael and - particularly - Labour where its new leader and deputy seem to have helped boost the party back to 15%, its highest rating for three years. I can see why Bertie didn't want all this before the election.

Bertie's travails

Irish politics is once again polarised. Bertie Ahern's account of how he obtained £30,000 in cash for his personal use when he was finance minister has divided the country. Fianna Fail politicians swear allegiance to their leader. The opposition smells a rat. The commentariat is split too, as yesterday's Sunday Independent showed with strong pieces by Brendan O'Connor (the case for the defence) and John Drennan (for the prosecution). I grew up in an Ireland where corruption bedevilled our politics, personified by Charles Haughey but exemplified in numerous cases of rezoning where councillors (and some senior politicians) enjoyed backhanders for their troubles. Whatever Bertie is supposed to have done seems tame by comparison, and opposition politicians are all too ready to shout 'fire' at the first whiff of a lit match in politics these days. Bertie enjoys enormous credit for his economic policies and his successes with Tony Blair in Northern Ireland. But his explanations for where he got all this cash are not yet good enough, nor are they clear enough. It is not sufficient to cite memory loss when so much cash is involved. He must provide a better explanation of the circumstances before the Tribunal ends. Or he must step down. Ireland cannot afford a return to the political culture of the eighties.

All-Ireland politics

Now that Fianna Fail has announced its plans to organise in Northern Ireland - and perhaps even to merge with the SDLP - there is no reason why the Irish and British Labour Parties should not ensure that voters of all backgrounds have the chance to vote Labour. Both parties should ensure there are Labour candidates in every constituency. I used to oppose this idea, but times have changed. Bertie and Sinn Fein shouldn't have a free run.