Brown's decisiveness at a critical moment

Recent criticism of Gordon Brown - which has culminated in today's dismal poll ratings - owed much to a sense of indecisiveness in the face of economic crises. The dithering over Northern Rock had as much to do with his growing unpopularity as his failure to call an election.

But in the last 24 hours, we have seen rather more of the Brown the public used to respect as Chancellor. Ably assisted by his best Downing Street aide, Jeremy Heywood, Brown has facilitated the merger of Lloyds TSB and HBOS, to the benefit of the wider economy and provided reassurance to HBOS customers (if not those facing job losses). He has also acted quickly to set up an inquiry into what the intelligence services knew in advance of the Omagh bombings.

Whether he gains any public credit for these actions remains to be seen. But having endured so much criticism in recent months, he deserves credit for his speedy responses on these occasions.

A week of misjudgment for Cameron

Who'd have thought that the week when Gordon Brown was forced to nationalise a bank would be the week when the wheels started to come off the Cameron bandwagon? But this has not been as bad a week for the Government as it might have been. Polls suggest the public doesn't blame them for the failings of Northern Rock; indeed Brown and Darling are rated more highly than Cameron-Osborne for competence. The Tories have shot themselves in the foot at a time when they had the chance to gain political advantage. First, George Osborne made a complete chump of himself with his shrill shriekings over Northern Rock on Sunday and his lightweight Commons performance on Monday. Then, Cameron missed the target at PMQs. And finally, he capped a week of poor judgment with his crass list of 'gimmicks' yesterday, which was bad enough in itself, but was compounded by a refusal to withdraw his suggestion that sending sixth-formers to visit Auschwitz was a 'gimmick'. (The idea, being put about by poor David Hunt, who has been forced to defend Cameron, that the fuss has obscured an otherwise brilliant speech is absurd, as a quick reading of its contents will show). Cameron makes a great pretence of copying the tactics of Tony Blair and his team before the 1997 election; but this week has shown that he lacks the sure-footedness of Blair. And it may be that this unexpectedly bad week for the Tories will reignite public doubts about his judgment and competence (those that were buried after last year's Tory party conference). How ironic if the event that Brown least wanted - Northern Rock nationalisation - should trigger that reaction.

Trouble comes in threes?

With a dismal Comres poll in today's Independent, Gordon Brown can only hope that trouble comes in threes. Peter Watt's speedy resignation may reduce the usual feeding frenzy that accompanies these funding stories - only made possible, of course, by the government's own legislation - and the Virgin takeover of Northern Rock offers a breathing space. A mixture of clear direction and a delivery in the economy and public services is now vital to recovery. None of the three problems of the last week is fatal like Black Wednesday, however wishfully the Tories think. But we can't afford much more like them. Gordon needs to come out stronger from today's press conference and tomorrow's PMQs.

Recovering from another worst ever week in the history of politics

What is it about journalists in the Westminster village? Having been close to the political scene for some twenty years, I have lost count of the amount of hyperbole that passes for serious commentary at the end of a difficult week for the government. The loss of the child benefit computer disc clearly ranks high in the civil service stupidity stakes; and nearly as high on the ministerial embarrassment stakes. But if the disc has not fallen into the hands of fraudsters, it is utterly absurd to compare the last week either to the petrol crisis of 2000, or particularly to Black Wednesday in terms of its long-term political impact. Jack Straw is right about that. Equally, the crisis at Northern Rock reflects (a) a rather risky business model and (b) a series of unpalatable choices for the Chancellor, but is hardly a sign of his incompetence.

That said, there is no question that the government has got itself into a hole. The polls are not good (though they are not as good for the Tories as they should be either and voters blame civil servants not ministers for the loss of the disc). And the silly decision to keep public options open on an autumn election has been compounded by an appearance of incompetence since. That's why the government needs to do two things.

First, it needs to be bolder in its approach to reform. The idea that you can get a clear message across while trying to be all things to all men hasn't worked. We have, for example, just had a Tory schools policy that is largely a carbon copy - with one or two exceptions - of government policy that is already in place. Yet the Tories are being allowed to appear to be brilliant innovators. It is time to shout not shirk from what the government is doing successfully and to worry more about winning over parents that silencing the teaching unions. The same applies across the government's policy agenda. Second, I hope reports in today's Observer are right and the PM is widening his circle of advice. He has good people in no 10, but he would benefit from a more open approach to policy development. And third, the government needs to find a narrative that shows how it is successfully delivering on a lot of fronts. The Prime Minister's delivery unit needs the sort of empowerment it had when it was first set up to ensure that policy is delivered, not just announced. That may produce guffaws from the government's opponents this weekend. But there is plenty of evidence around of successful delivery on once difficult areas of policy. Delivery matters as much as policy development.

No Northern Rock effect

A new Yougov poll in today's Daily Telegraph shows that the majority of people thought the government handled the Northern Rock situation well, and Labour remains six points clear of the Tories going into the party conference, at 39-33%. David Cameron remains 22 points behind Gordon Brown, who is on 42% as best prime minister (though for those LibDem fantasists who think Ming has shone this week, he scores a mere 6%). Most importantly, asked to choose between a Brown-led Labour government and a Cameron-led Tory government, Brown beats Cameron 47-32%, a recipe for an extraordinary landslide. I still find the idea of an autumn election unlikely, though it must be very tempting. And it is time for an inquest at Tory Central Office into how they so badly mishandled their response to Northern Rock, surely?