Will YouGov have egg on its face?

For some years, I have enjoyed filling in Yougov's surveys. I even received a cheque for fifty quid for my trouble last year. But the online pollster faces a make-or-break week. For it is not just Ken v Boris that will be decided on Thursday, but the veracity of Yougov polls versus the rest. Most polls have shown Ken recovering in recent weeks, with Boris trailing on issues like leadership and transport (though winning on crime). But tonight's Evening Boris has another poll giving the Tory pretender a whopping 10-point lead. If they are right, it will not just be curtains for the Mayor and a bad night for Gordon; it will be a disaster for traditional pollsters and another feather in Yougov's cap. But if they are wrong, and Ken wins, taking the wind out of Cameron's sails, there will be some fairly searching questions about the accuracy of Internet polling.

Is Gordon doomed?

As the Prime Minister prepares for his American visit, it seems he can do nothing right. The weekend papers are woeful. Matthew Parris, while elegant in his demolition of Gordon's credentials, is predictable. But the Guardian has turned on his leadership with a vengeance. Yesterday, it was that ficklest of friends, Polly Toynbee. Today, more seriously, it is a pretty sharp leader and a sharper piece by Martin Kettle, citing the collective mumbling from the backbenches. The economy is feeling the pinch, as mortgages dry up and European holidays become more expensive. Bizarrely, Mark Penn has been giving advice. And even the US jaunt is mis-timed, as it coincides with a long-awaited Papal trip.

So, is it really curtains for Gordon? Probably not. For one thing, Boris Johnson seems to have peaked in the London Mayoral polls, and after a serious wobble, Ken Livingstone has now got a better than evens chance of winning, once Green and LibDem transfers are counted in (and Ken must do everything he can to win the latter); if Labour holds London, it will be a serious blow to David Cameron and be as valuable to Labour as the Tories holding Wandsworth was in 1990. Second, though the economy is feeling the heat of the global and banking crisis, its fundamentals remain strong. Employment remains high and unemployment low; inflation is still manageable. And third, there is still not yet a credible alternative government. Cameron may be personable enough and be a better character on American Idol, if the opportunity presents itself. But his party remains either policy-lite or policy-disfunctional (as with its anti-patient health policy driven by someone whom Cameron has promised not to sack). And when these policies face proper scrutiny, the parties will be more evenly matched. But that's not to say it is not serious.

Brown has wasted months of disorganised leadership in Number 10 (now finally in better shape) and pandering to a never-satisfied backbench left-wing (and some of his ministers still seem to think they, rather than the electorate, should be their main audience). Gordon must now set a small number of clear, attainable and potentially popular goals across government and see them being delivered. If he does that - and holds London - the picture could be very different six months hence.

Boris doesn't do his maths homework

It is quite extraordinary that Boris Johnson is leading the polls for London mayor; one can only assume the voters haven't heard him much. I have just watched the most inept, extraordinary performance I have seen by any politician in years on Newsnight. Boris hadn't a clue how much his treasured Routemasters cost. He said the mayor should earn less, but had no idea to what. All the time, one had the impression of a politician making it up as he went along, including a 90 second intro that he had plenty of time to rehearse. Goodness knows what this buffoonery would lead to in City Hall. I can see why he doesn't like doing too many debates in this election, but surely that was one thing Eton was supposed to equip you for?

What Ken needs to do to win

Perhaps as one of those New Labour types whom Ken cheerfully enjoyed smashing into the ground in 2000, I should be sitting this mayoral election out, particularly since I don't have a vote in the capital any more. I helped Frank Dobson win the Labour nomination at the time (though was not part of his mayoral campaign team) fearing that Ken might resort to cronyism, gesture politics and consorting with extremists if he became Mayor, having remembered the less attractive features of the eighties GLC. But while Ken has been his 1980s self to an extent, he has also made a big difference to the capital. The congestion charge has been a success, buses are more frequent, the Oyster card is great, crime is down and the capital will host the 2012 Olympics. True, taxi fares are also utterly extortionate now, but this is a success list any mayor would die for. And one look at his motley crew of opponents, including the charming but utterly unconvincing Boris Johnson, makes it clear that Ken is the only candidate capable of leading the capital. So I hope he takes Jonathan Freedland's excellent advice on how he needs to do it in today's Guardian: debate more, promise this is your last term, offer to hire Brian Paddick, get out the vote and be your cheeky, populist self. He needs all the help he can get.