Will YouGov have egg on its face?

For some years, I have enjoyed filling in Yougov's surveys. I even received a cheque for fifty quid for my trouble last year. But the online pollster faces a make-or-break week. For it is not just Ken v Boris that will be decided on Thursday, but the veracity of Yougov polls versus the rest. Most polls have shown Ken recovering in recent weeks, with Boris trailing on issues like leadership and transport (though winning on crime). But tonight's Evening Boris has another poll giving the Tory pretender a whopping 10-point lead. If they are right, it will not just be curtains for the Mayor and a bad night for Gordon; it will be a disaster for traditional pollsters and another feather in Yougov's cap. But if they are wrong, and Ken wins, taking the wind out of Cameron's sails, there will be some fairly searching questions about the accuracy of Internet polling.

Snookered?

This piece by Fraser Nelson in the Spectator shows what a parlous state the Tories and David Cameron are in now. What a shame. Given the truly extraordinary figures in this week´s YouGov poll (pdf), it is hard to see how they could recover. But the excellent spin of the last month won´t produce the goods forever, and Mr Brown´s spinners should be careful about throwing the baby out with the bathwater.