Will Ganley's return really boost Ireland's No Vote?

Much talk today about the return to the referendum fray in Ireland of Libertas leader Declan Ganley. Clearly the alliance between UKIP, pro-lifers and Sinn Fein against the Lisbon Treaty isn't working out as well as intended. And the mad Cóir posters suggesting that the minimum wage would be slashed as Ireland uniquely was forced to emulate Romanian pay rates, have been thoroughly discredited. No wonder the Yes vote lead has been hardening after a brief scare last week. But in their excitement about his return, have No campaigners really forgotten what happened the last time Ganley put himself before the electorate?

Dave's dodgy Euro-allies

I'm pleased that John Bercow was elected Speaker, though the mutterings from the Tory backwoodsmen about deposing him suggest that Cameron's efforts to modernise his party have not permeated very far into the party's psyche.

And that wasn't the only indicator. For yesterday was also the day that the Tories unveiled their 'odds and sods' European party. Instead of joining mainstream conservative opinion in the EPP - where Angela Merkel and Nicolas Sarkozy sit their parties - David Cameron has proceeded with his mad collection of Latvian Nazi enthusiasts, Polish gaybashers and Czech doubters of climate change.

I agree with Alastair Campbell that this event has the more long-term significance. The BBC extraordinarily sought to portray this motley crew as being on the centre right on politics. They ignored the eccentricity and extremism of his new allies, surely something that would have merited attention in other circumstances and pretended that this madcap group will actually have any influence in the European parliament.

Given that Libertas, the party that sought to make Euro-scepticism a European force suffered a spectacular failure in the European elections and has collapsed into farce, and that Ireland is now set to accept Lisbon by a 2-1 majority, the spectacular stupidity of the Tories' stance will become the more pronounced.

Europe is going to become more integrated whatever David Cameron says. The issue is how it does so and in what areas. Throwing a hissy fit against the EPP in order to join forces with the Latvian Waffen SS commemoration committee is hardly the best way to exercise that leverage should Cameron occupy No 10 in the future.

Some good news in Ireland's polls

With more depressing election news in Britain, as the European election results are declared, the Irish elections provide some good news both for Labour supporters and supporters of Europe. Declan Ganley looks likely to lose out in his bid for a seat for his Libertas party in Ireland North West (as Irish polls suggest that a second referendum will see Ireland accepting the Lisbon Treaty). And Labour looks likely to pick up a seat in the Ireland East, and has polled well in Ireland South. In Dublin, Sinn Fein seem set to lose a seat to a Trotskyist, Joe Higgins, depriving Fianna Fail of a seat in the capital. In council elections held on Thursday, Labour has consolidated its urban support, and is the largest party across Dublin and in Cork City. Fianna Fail has had its worst ever results, and its Green coalition partners have been virtually annihilated from local government.

This posting was picked up by the Guardian politics blog.