The definitive death of Dev's doleful legacy

Ireland's election result is no less groundbreaking for having been largely predictable. Fine Gael is likely to form a strong government with Labour, between them holding 113 seats out of 166 in the Dail. They will seek better terms than the crippling 5.8% interest rates that they have to pay on their European bailout loans. But essentially they will preside over a continuity of the austerity that had been begun under Fianna Fail in the years that saw its demise. But the real importance of the election is the collapse of DeValera's party, an event that with the liberal reforms that were symbolised by the 1990 election of Mary Robinson as President, the neutralisation of Northern Ireland as an issue and the collapse of Catholic church authority under a welter of child abuse scandals has finally brought to an end the stifling insularity that characterised Ireland from the 20s to the 70s.

Of course, some things haven't gone away. The economic collapse has brought back the spectre of emigration, though it lacks the permanence or distance of earlier years and there remains a strong and growing private sector thanks to the low corporation taxes so hated by Germany and France. Fianna Fail, with just 20 seats, has partly lost ground to a stronger Sinn Fein party which has obscured its past to secure 14 seats. But as importantly, the Irish Labour Party, despite a haltingly confused election campaign, is now Ireland's second party, with 37 seats and has done better than its previous best result in 1992. It is the predominant party in Dublin, and the opposition benches also have several hard left TDs who may form an informal alliance with Sinn Fein to challenge the next coalition with Fine Gael on around 75 seats, from the left.

That Fianna Fail has fallen so low doesn't, of course, mean that it will permanently be stuck in the doldrums. Its new leader, Micheal Martin has at least halted what could have been an even worse slide. The Canadian Conservatives showed that parties can recover from such a drubbing. But what it does mean is that the old assumptions are finally dead and buried. To some extent, the Celtic Tiger boom was the catalyst for much of that change already. But it was presided over by Fianna Fail, which had managed to adapt in many ways to those winds of change, though never convincingly to embrace them. So, the transition could never be complete while the party of Dev continued to dominate Irish politics.

Now that party will need to face up to a future that it had sidestepped while Bertie was in charge as the money flowed in. Ireland needs to show that it can be modern and efficient with more realistic and soundly based growth. Whatever happens, there is no doubt that the election of 2011 will come to be seen as just as seismic an event in Irish political history as the 1918 poll that saw the demise of the Irish national party in favour of a Sinn Fein that gave birth to the two parties that dominated independent Ireland's politics for 90 years.

This post also appears at Public Finance.

Ireland's call, Kenny's choice

There is a peculiar air of unreality around the Irish election campaign. The big issue seems to be whether one-time teachers like Enda Kenny, the man likely to be Taoiseach by the weekend, should continue to access teachers' pensions (which he has decided not to take while in office). However, the real issue is whether it is good for Ireland to face a Fine Gael minority government rather than the long anticipated coalition with Labour.

To be fair, Kenny has fought a pretty good campaign, though he started it with a reputation for leadership so low that the only way was up, and as predicted here, Labour has provided a spectacular object lesson in how not to win elections, schizophrenically tacking left on tax and spend policy while running ads intended to undermine Fine Gael's appeal to middle class, fiscally conservative voters. The party leader, Eamon Gilmore, who had a brief moment not so long ago when he could credibly talk of himself as a future Taoiseach, has lost his personal lead as potential Taoiseach to the new kid on the block, Micheal Martin, who has rescued Fianna Fail from oblivion if not a pretty crushing defeat with as few as 30 seats. More seriously, his strategy of talking of higher taxes for those earning over €100k (£85k) a year could have cost him a swathe of Dublin seats, as Fine Gael is now leading the capital's polls.

Even so, Labour is still likely to achieve a result that will come close to Dick Spring's 33 seats (from a 166-member Dail) in 1992, and Fine Gael seems certain to exceeed 70 seats. (The Guardian will be disappointed that Sinn Fein will probably have to settle for a dozen seats at most, though Gerry Adams will probably take a seat). But with a swathe of independents, including assorted Trotskyists, likely to win seats, the temptation for Kenny could be to ignore Labour and cobble together a coalition with the independents. However, Garret Fitzgerald, a former Taoiseach and Fine Gael leader, has struck a timely note of caution in this respect in a speech, as the Irish Times reported:

Dr FitzGerald said such a coalition would be “much more solid” than seeking support from Independents, which he described as “disastrous”. “With Independents you have no idea. They can blackmail you for something in their constituency,” he warned. Dr FitzGerald believes the two parties can sort out their differences. “If they sort those out and stick together for five years, you have the kind of majority needed to do all the unpopular things that need to be done.”

Kenny has sought to increase his international standing during the campaign with visits to Chancellor Merkel and EU President Jose Manuel Barroso, intended to suggest that he could re-negotiate the stiff interest rates demanded for the Irish bailout. Even if he does, he faces a pretty tough time as Taoiseach. It would be crazy to go into it without a strong partner in government, and Labour is still the only serious option. Gilmore has started to remind people of this and to rein in the more damaging rhetoric. Kenny needs to show he means business, by urging vote transfers to Labour on Friday, if he wants the chance to lead as Taoiseach rather than forever having to buy off the whims of unreliable independents.

Will Fine Gael govern alone in Ireland?

Enda Kenny has not exactly had a good press in his years as leader of Fine Gael. Last year, I joined RTE discussion shows where his leadership was being compared with that of Gordon Brown. Last week, he was much criticised for failing to join a TV debate with the new Fianna Fail leader Micheál Martin and Labour leader Eamonn Gilmore. And Gilmore had until recently been expected to be in a position to dictate the terms of a new coalition government, if not demand the post of Taoiseach as his more ambitious election posters optimistically declare across Ireland.

Yet today all the talk is of Enda for Taoiseach at the head of a Fine Gael government propped up by some of the 15 or so independents expected to triumph as Fianna Fail gets a deserved drubbing from the voters. The Taoiseach-in-waiting has even headed off to Germany for a photocall with his Christian Democrat colleague, German Chancellor Angela Merkel, to discuss possible changes to the economic bailout. Meanwhile, Labour's hopes of exceeding the 33 seats that Dick Spring won in 1992 are starting to fade, especially if the constituency polls are to be believed.

As it happens, I'm not sure all the polls are right. Fianna Fail's 15% showing seems too low, and Martin has had an impressive performance suggesting he is a leader who had nothing to do with the government in which he sat as a permanent fixture at the cabinet table. And the vagaries of Ireland's PR system could deliver transfers from left-wing parties to those on Gilmore's slate. it would also be a big risk for Kenny to try to govern with fickle independents in some sort of minority government rather than having Labour in a stable coalition which could have 105 seats between them.

Yet, there is also a sense in which a fundamental tactical error by Gilmore has blown his expected gale - talk of Labour taking 40+ seats was commonplace - off course. Winning two seats in most Dublin constituencies requires the votes and transfers of middle class voters who have been badly affected by the country's economic crisis as much as those of traditional Labour voters or transfers from the likes of Sinn Fein. Yet when Gilmore should have been reassuring those voters, he fell into the classic trap of tacking left by promoting higher taxes for people earning over €100k (£85k) which has been effectively attacked by Fine Gael. This has seen Labour's vote starting to fall back - as low as 20% in one poll yesterday (and lower in aggregate constituency polls), where the party was scoring in the high 20s and low 30s not so long ago. If Fianna Fail's vote is understated, Labour could fall further.

Of course, there is much to play for in the next 12 days, and the public may respond to Kenny's go-it-alone declarations by giving Labour a stronger mandate. Labour still seems likely to have a big increase in vote and seats, and Fianna Fail to face unprecedented losses. But it is just starting to feel that far from being the great breakthrough election that many had predicted, this will be the one where the baton simply passes to Fine Gael minus any of the reforming instincts that Labour could bring to the table.

Good governance in Ireland requires a strong Labour showing on Friday week. Gilmore should take a few lessons from his veteran colleague and former finance minister Ruairi Quinn on how to play the economy ahead of tonight's five-leader debate. He has no time to lose.

A new dawn for Irish politics?

With an Irish general election likely before the end of the month, how likely is it that this will be a mould-breaking election? Certainly the position of Fianna Fail had seemed precarious until the clever former foreign minister Michael Martin manouevered Brian Cowen out of his party's leadership and moved himself into the top job.

Martin is now displaying the ruthlessness expected of the party of DeValera, Lemass and Haughey, and is busy sidelining TDs and running a very tight seats strategy to make the most of the party's dismal poll showing in the Irish PR system. He has also been making smart noises about backing a Fine Gael government to keep Labour out, noises unwelcome to Fine Gael's hapless leader Enda Kenny who wants to lead a coalition with Labour. With a 16% Fianna Fail poll showing yesterday, there is every chance of that rising to 24% by polling day as Fianna Failers furious with Cowen's ineptitude return to the fold.

That said, Fianna Fail will do well to hold a third, let alone half, their seats in the current circumstances. And the likelihood is that there will be a Fine Gael-Labour government with Kenny as Taoiseach (though Labour's Eamon Gilmore is far more popular). The issue will be the respective showings of the opposition parties - and the Greens - in the final votes and seats tallies. The Greens seem likely to lose most of their seats, and Labour should at least double its seats. The extent to which they succeed, especially in Dublin where Labour should be the largest party, depends on the success of Sinn Fein, with Gerry Adams seeing to enter the Dail, and the ragbag of Trots, leftists and local independents who can expect to pick up a share of the disillusionment vote. Labour has beaten Fine Gael in some polls, but seems unlikely to do so in the vote that matters unless Kenny screws up big time - an achievement of which he is more than capable.

But will this really be a mould-breaker? While a welcome breakthrough for Labour would undoubtedly alter its position in Irish politics, not least if it overtakes Fianna Fail, any government will be severely constrained by the European austerity measures agreed by Cowen, even though Labour is proposing to backload the cuts. Sinn Fein could gain some extra seats, and may even deprive Labour of some expected gains, but is unlikely to be more than a louder voice in the next Dail. And Martin seems set to turn Fianna Fail into a credible opposition, erasing the memory of Cowen's ineptitude.

That will make it even harder for Labour is to retain its strength in Government, a feat it has not achieved in previous coalitions. After all, Labour had 33 seats in 1992 which it halved in 1997, though that owed much to an unexpected deal with Fianna Fail for three of those years. Without the demise of Fianna Fail, that mould will be a lot harder to break - even though the results seem certain to represent a historic high for the Irish left.

The strange death of Fianna Fail Ireland

The final capitulation by Irish Taoiseach Brian Cowan to the IMF and the European Union over a bailout must mark the last rites for his Fianna Fail party. The party founded by Eamon DeValera in 1927 had seen itself as the natural party of government since 1932, and it enjoyed a dominance of Irish politics only occasionally interrupted by coalitions of the opposition parties over the following 80 years. But all that is now at an end.

Fianna Fail scored a mere 17% on one poll last week, with Fine Gael on 33% and Labour on 27%. In Thursday's by-election in Donegal, not only are Sinn Fein set to win with as much as 40% of first preference votes, but Labour may score 15% in a seat where they barely scraped 3% before. Some polls even make Labour the largest party nationally, and it undoubtedly is in that position in Dublin.

When I was at university, we were taught that Ireland was a two-and-a-half-party system with Labour as the half-party. Now Fianna Fail may find itself in that unenviable position after an election that will now happen in January when the Greens pull the plug on their uncomfortable coalition with Fianna Fail. Why has this happened?

The most obvious reason is the economy. Fianna Fail has presided over a culture that allowed the property boom to develop, and which favoured unregulated development. Banks like Anglo-Irish were indulged, but so too were public sector trade unions as wages far exceeded the long-term capacity of the economy. The populist economic approach of Fianna Fail had a lot to do with the economic problems.

But that is not the only reason. The collapse of the Irish Catholic Church impacted on the party too: Fianna Fail was more closely in step with the hierarchy than its opponents, particularly in the 70s and 80s, and slower to embrace liberal reforms. The legacy of Charles Haughey and his cronies took their toll too. But above all, the near-death of Fianna Fail symbolises the profound social changes that have outlived the demise of the Celtic Tiger, which really gained traction after Mary Robinson was elected President in 1990.

All that is needed now is for the electorate to act as undertaker to Dev's party in the new year. The extent to which the Irish Labour Party can gain most from the remains will depend a lot on its ability to consolidate the popularity of its leader Eamon Gilmore - compared with Fine Gael's lacklustre Enda Kenny - into solid and credible policies for the age of austerity. The next two months could change the face of Irish politics forever.

Some good news in Ireland's polls

With more depressing election news in Britain, as the European election results are declared, the Irish elections provide some good news both for Labour supporters and supporters of Europe. Declan Ganley looks likely to lose out in his bid for a seat for his Libertas party in Ireland North West (as Irish polls suggest that a second referendum will see Ireland accepting the Lisbon Treaty). And Labour looks likely to pick up a seat in the Ireland East, and has polled well in Ireland South. In Dublin, Sinn Fein seem set to lose a seat to a Trotskyist, Joe Higgins, depriving Fianna Fail of a seat in the capital. In council elections held on Thursday, Labour has consolidated its urban support, and is the largest party across Dublin and in Cork City. Fianna Fail has had its worst ever results, and its Green coalition partners have been virtually annihilated from local government.

This posting was picked up by the Guardian politics blog.

The death of Fianna Fail?

It used to be a given that Ireland was what some political scientists called a two-and-a-half party system, with the two parties that had emerged from the bloody civil wars of the twenties, Fianna Fail and Fine Gael, the Tweedledum and Tweedledee of Irish politics, and Irish Labour destined to play a poor third as occasional coalition partner.

Fianna Fail always had a dodgier reputation, exacerbated by Charlie Haughey's appalling corruption, but it had also become the natural party of government, a position recently crystallised by Bertie Ahern's decade in power. Even if there were two big parties, Fianna Fail was always the larger of the two.

And that's the context in which to read this morning's extraordinary Irish Times opinion poll. For the first time in history, the Irish Labour Party on 24% has overtaken Fianna Fail at 22% and pushed the party of DeValera into third place, with Fine Gael in the lead on a reduced 32% (Sinn Fein, the Greens and Independents get 8%, 4% and 9% respectively). Brian Cowen, whose abysmal leadership of his party has been marked by an approach to the economy similar to that advocated by David Cameron and George Osborne, has begun to kill his party.

Fianna Fail used to be a bit dodgy; it was never politically inept before. After huge public spending cuts and efforts to take medical cards from pensioners, satisfaction with the Government is just 14%, and Fianna Fail support in Dublin a mere 13%. Labour has had its false dawns before: it reached similar levels of popularity under Dick Spring in the early 90s but lost it by going into coalition with Fianna Fail; and it had a few heady years in the 60s too. But its leader Eamon Gilmore has had a good recession, and the polling speaks for itself.

There is only one phrase to describe what's happening in Irish politics today - that coined by the late Conor Cruise O'Brien in different circumstances - grotesque, unbelievable, bizarre and unprecedented or GUBU.

This post was picked up by Chris Paul and Politics in Ireland.

Cameron's Crewe handicap

An ICM poll in Crewe for the Mail on Sunday suggests that the Tories will win the by-election by a narrow margin on a 10% swing since the general election. But with the sort of poll leads they are scoring nationally, the Tories should be winning a by-election like this easily - look at the sort of by-election swings Labour secured before the 1997 election to see why. But what is most interesting about the Mail poll is that it suggests Labour has picked the right candidate, and the Tories the wrong one. For voters say they are six percentage points more likely to vote Labour in this by-election than they say they would vote in a general election. A ten per cent swing is hardly the 35% of Christchurch, the 29% of Dudley West, 22% in SE Staffs or even the 21% of mid-Staffordshire in 1990 (two years before Labour lost the 1992 election). There was only one by-election, in Barnsley East, where Labour secured a swing below 10% between 1992-97. The nature of the candidates must be the explanation for a relatively poor showing by Cameron in Crewe. So, with strong promotion of Tamsin Dunwoody and plenty of exposure to Edward "Timmy" Timpson, there is more hope than other polling might suggest for Labour in this by-election. Crewe is Cameron's to lose.

Bertie's spot of bother

Bertie Ahern's evidence on his financial affairs has failed to convince voters. Polling for the Irish Times has shown three in four voters are dissatisfied with his testimony to the Tribunal recently. That has translated into a polling boost for Fine Gael and - particularly - Labour where its new leader and deputy seem to have helped boost the party back to 15%, its highest rating for three years. I can see why Bertie didn't want all this before the election.

Joan Burton is Irish Labour deputy leader

I'm delighted to see that my old friend Joan Burton has been elected deputy leader of the Irish Labour Party. She is just what the party needs to re-capture urban enthusiasm. A shame she didn't go for leader.

All-Ireland politics

Now that Fianna Fail has announced its plans to organise in Northern Ireland - and perhaps even to merge with the SDLP - there is no reason why the Irish and British Labour Parties should not ensure that voters of all backgrounds have the chance to vote Labour. Both parties should ensure there are Labour candidates in every constituency. I used to oppose this idea, but times have changed. Bertie and Sinn Fein shouldn't have a free run.

Gilmore's challenge

The Irish Labour Party has confirmed the unopposed election of Eamon Gilmore as Pat Rabbitte's replacement for leader. A postal ballot will decide between Joan Burton and Jan O'Sullivan for deputy. It is good that the party will have a woman deputy, but Gilmore, though undoubtedly able, feels a bit like more of the same. If he is to see the growth that Labour could achieve Gilmore must turn this part of his acceptance speech into more than mere rhetoric:

But to help change Ireland for the better, Labour itself has to change. We need to change the way we organise, becoming more open to new members and new candidates. We have to change the way we communicate, applying the most modern methods to get across our message. We have to be more positive, telling people what we are for and not just what we oppose. And we have to bond better with our voters and our potential voters to construct a new politics for and of the new Ireland.

Rabbitte's retirement

News that the Irish Labour Party leader, Pat Rabbitte, is to step down is hardly surprising. Though a good media operator, Rabbitte failed to raise Labour's seats tally in the Republic's general election, a failure that ensured Bertie Ahern's position as Taoiseach-for-life is made more likely. Today's Irish Times reports that either Eamonn Gilmore or Brendan Howlin are the likely successors. Surely now is the time for a rather bigger shift in Irish Labour, rather than a rerun of old Democratic Left-traditional Labour battles? Perhaps one of the party's able women TDs could bring it - Joan Burton or Liz McManus? Rabbitte himself recognised the need for real change some weeks ago. Labour needs to recognise the reality of the challenges it faces in modern Ireland. Rabbitte's retirement gives them the chance to do so.

Irish New Labour?

The Irish Labour Party flatlined in the Republic's recent general election. Now, the party's leader Pat Rabbitte has started to think about what went wrong. Politics.ie offers this link to his Kemmy lecture, where I was particularly struck by the following:

In marketing parlance, there is a problem with the Labour 'brand'. In using that term, I am not referring to something superficial, such as the way that we package the party. I am referring to the spontaneous associations and reactions that voters have when they see the words 'Labour Party'. The way we are seen in modern Ireland.

What does that mean – that there is a problem with the brand? It means that the Labour Party does not conjure up in people's minds, much less inspire, a definite sense of what the party stands for and how it relates to their day to day lives.

As a party, we tend to think of ourselves as having a core working class vote. According to the RTE exit poll, more people in the ABC1 category vote for us than do the C2Des. Its not that we are loosing our traditional base – its that our traditional base is being eroded and has changed. Affluence has changed the way people think about themselves. If we ever did, we do not reflect the aspirations of most of the new middle class – people in working class occupations trying to live middle class lives. People whose parents in some cases voted Labour, but who themselves do not vote Labour. We have not persuaded them that we will improve their lives, and certainly we have not persuaded them that we are worth the risk, as they see it, of changing
horses mid-stream.

Irish New Labour beckons, perhaps?