An indictment of Thabo Mbeki

News that the MDC leader Morgan Tsvangirai - who on any legitimate basis should already be running Zimbabwe - has felt obliged to withdraw from this week's election in the face of the most appalling campaign of intimidation by Zanu-PF is an indictment not just of Robert Mugabe and his henchmen, but of his closest comrade Thabo Mbeki as well.

That Mbeki has failed to persuade his friend to run a free and fair election shows the utter bankruptcy of his policy of silent engagement. And his failure is not only likely to result in renewed misery for millions of Zimbabweans, but also for his own countrymen who face the prospect of a further influx of refugees from Mugabe's tyranny.

The time has come for Southern African countries to act (preferably with some support from the United Nations, though few would hold their breath waiting for it). If that means Mbeki persuading Mugabe that he can leave now that he has "won", so be it. At least his friendship might do the country a favour. But inaction can surely no longer be an option. Which means that South Africa must show leadership in supporting the Zimbabwean people in their time of need.

Can we avert a Zimbabwean nightmare?

Watching last night's shocking BBC Newsnight and Channel 4 News reports from inside Zimbabwe, it is hard to see how Robert Mugabe can fail to steal the presidential election. His torture camps for dissidents, his hijacking of the media and his use of the state security apparatus to cling to power stack the odds against Morgan Tsvangirai and his MDC party. Yet, even amidst such gruesome provocation, people were telling reporters that they would vote against Mugabe.

The United Nations attitude has predictably been low key, as its wont when any country goes to war against its own people. It should be condemning in the strongest terms the destruction of democracy. But the real tragedy has been the lack of guts among many of Mugabe's Southern African neighbours, not least the gloriously wrongheaded South African leader Thabo Mbeki, whose continued embrace of Mugabe amidst it all has succeeded in making his successor Jacob Zuma appear statesmanlike.

That is why we should salute the Swazi parliamentarian Marwick Khumalo (pictured), who heads the Southern African observers of this increasingly farcical poll, for his no-nonsense condemnation of the violence, for laying the blame where it belongs at ZANU-PF's door and for promising not to endorse the run-off if the violence continues. And we should also congratulate Botswana for its strong condemnation, the more powerful as it comes from a country which has a successful democracy since independence.

Meanwhile, I share Iain Dale's suggestion that the rest of us who feel so powerless should donate to the Friends of Zimbabwe in their efforts to give people the chance - however remote it may seem - of a fair election.