Labour must articulate its vision as Tory arrogance cuts their poll lead

I have no idea whether or not yesterday's Sunday Times poll is the game changer it purports to be, though it is interesting to see how the underlying questions suggest that the David Cameron and George Osborne - especially, I suspect, the latter - have lost ground on confidence issues that had propelled them into double-digit leads just a few months ago. But the biggest problem the Tories face was exemplified in Cameron's lacklustre speech yesterday: he all but declared that people had a 'patriotic duty' to vote Conservative. No, they haven't, and it is the height of arrogance to suggest they do. Indeed, had we listened to Osborne on the banks, many of us would be as poor as Argentinians were after their banks collapsed at the turn of the Millennium, as their savings turned to dust. Some patriotic duty.

With signs of recovery, people are right to be distrustful of Osborne's medicine now. Equally, the Tories continue to leave the BMA spokesman Andrew Lansley in charge of health policies that will increase inefficiency in the NHS while greatly reducing patient care, and Cameron says that this man knows more about the NHS than anyone else alive. If he does, one only wonders why he has been keeping it to himself all this time. The list goes on: Theresa Villiers trying to wreck plans for high-speed rail and sideline our most important airport; Jeremy Hunt, the media spokesman set on wrecking the BBC. Add to that the preening arrogance of young Tory wannabees who loudly declare in bars near Millbank and Westminster the jobs that they will have in a new Government - to sharp intakes of breath from non-partisan folk nearby - and the renewed sense of entitlement being displayed in Tory-Labour marginals like mine, and you can see why the polls are narrowing.

That's not to say that Labour has been getting it right: too many of our policies remain unfocused, and we have not found a way either to articulate the progress and vision in our public services, especially education. The Budget must not shirk from an honest assessment of what the economy needs and what it will require to halve the deficit over four years. But we now have a chance to start winning these arguments, as swing voters think twice about the Tories. It is a small window, and it is vital that ministers and those in no 10 grab it while they have the chance.

Poll position?

The BBC has been reporting an Ipsos-Mori poll showing Labour lagging the Liberal Democrats on the 25-27 September, not for the first time, as Anthony Wells points out. I have no wish to underestimate the challenge facing the party, but why did it not also report a more recent daily tracking poll from YouGov conducted on 27-28 September suggesting Labour is ten points ahead of the LibDems, having risen five points at the start of the conference? The BBC should either resume their former habit of ignoring polls, or avoid picking and choosing the ones that suit their narrative.

The NAHT 'poll' that shows why we need independent testing in primary schools

I listened to NAHT general secretary Mick Brookes telling us this morning that we could trust his members to do their own assessments of how good their own schools were, without any need for troublesome tests or pesky performance tables.

In the midst of the discussion, Mr Brookes informed us that his stance enjoyed the overwhelming backing of parents, according to an opinion poll that his union had done. Given that an independent Ipsos MORI survey for the DCSF showed a rather different result - and it was conducted using a representative sample of parents by a reputable polling company - I thought this a bit fishy.

So I checked the NAHT's website for more details of this 'poll.' In fact, there is no independent opinion poll. Instead, the NAHT has pulled together a self-selecting 'sample' of parents' views collected by NAHT members and collated with no attempt at weighting.

The press release issued in February even suggests that embarrassed NAHT press officers know the whole thing is a crock. "Whilst we recognise that this is not an independent survey, it represents a substantial body of opinion," they plead.

So, let's get this straight. The union which tells us that we can trust its members to tell parents exactly how well their child's school is doing in English and maths without independent national tests or published results is quite happy to defy the rules of statistics to get the data it wants, and to pretend that its data is of some value even though it shows results exactly the opposite of properly conducted independent research.

And we are supposed then to take their word that we don't need any independent look at how primary schools run by its members are performing?

Some good news in the polls

Today's Sunday Times/YouGov poll shows the Tory lead reduced to seven points and a boost in Gordon Brown's personal ratings. It now needs Alastair Darling to do the goods with the Budget to consolidate this position. I've been surprised by the sourness of the Tory reaction this week: it is all-advised.

But the Government also needs to show the confidence that has been on display at the G20 this week across other policy areas: Labour has much stronger welfare and health policies than the Tories and should say so; on education, Labour academies are showing the way forward but they are not being promoted by Labour 'children's ministers' whose message on education has been lost in recent months. Here too, Labour must regain the initiative, not least in the wake of LSC incompetence over college and post-16 funding.

On a separate note, it is encouraging to see that voters have a saner attitude towards the whole issue of MP funding - and Jacqui Smith in particular - than has been exhibited in the sexist bile dumped on the Home Secretary in recent weeks. But Gordon Brown must sort the expenses issue out quickly if it is not to become a running sore that damages the government and not just the public perception of MPs.

In poll position?

A poll in tomorrow's Independent on Sunday gives another indication of the public's view of the 'do nothing' approach being taken by David Cameron. Labour is just one point behind the Tories, and the latter have lost six percentage points in support. Clearly the Angela Merkel worldview has not helped Cameron, at least for now - opposition to Labour's high levels of borrowing is pretty strong too.

Has Cameron's attack on the police hurt the Tories?

After some disappointing polls for Labour following last week's PBR, along comes one to put a spring back in Gordon Brown's step. That's Tories 37, Labour 36. The Independent sees it as a positive verdict on the PBR. But as the only poll conducted after the arrest of Damian Green, could the voters be telling David Cameron that they don't want politicians to be trying to undermine the police in their investigations?

Cameron's confusion helps the Brown bounce

Iain is terribly excited by Dave's latest wheeze on the economy. I'm not sure it will resonate very far with voters who have been distinctly underwhelmed by the McCain-like confusion with which Cameron and Osborne have treated the economy in recent months. If proof were needed, look no further than today's Populus poll for The Times. Not only does it show the lowest Tory lead over Labour for months at 41-35, it also shows that the voters don't trust the Tory duo on the economy, preferring Brown-Darling by a 20-point margin. If I were David Cameron, I would be most worried about the growing personal economic optimism, where people think their own prospects are better than those of the economy.

The poll also shows that Cameron is more popular as PM for the long-term by a margin of 42-35. Peter Riddell interprets this to mean that voters prefer Brown in a crisis, but Cameron in fair weather. Yet, when asked who represents Obama-style change, Cameron barely squeaks a four point lead. Rather than showing great enthusiasm for Dave in 2010, both these polling figures simply reflect the latest voting intentions, and show the remarkable recovery Brown has made in recent weeks. Gordon is right to say that the public want serious people for serious times. But there is no evidence to suggest that they are pining for lightweights when the good times return.

UPDATE: Labour Matters has a great rebuttal to Cameron's scheme from DWP minister Tony McNulty showing the astonishing financially illiteracy of Osborne's people. They seem completely to have ignored all the deadweight costs associated with their wheeze as well as the perverse incentives to keep people jobless longer than the norm.

A devastating poll for Cameron

Tonight's YouGov poll for Channel 4 News in 60 key marginals brings not only real signs of a bounce for the Prime Minister, but some very bad news for the flailing leader of the Opposition.

Here are some of the devastating results:

• The Tory lead over Labour in key battleground seats has reduced from 13 to just five points, with Labour up to 38 points.
• 59 per cent of voters reckon David Cameron is a 'lightweight' politician.
• Most voters recognise that the economic crisis is a worldwide crisis, rejecting Cameron's spin that it is all the government's fault.
• 48 per cent of voters think the Tories haven't a clue what to do in an economic crisis.
• By 41-27, voters think Brown not Cameron is the man to handle the crisis.
• Oh, and just 12% of people rate George Osborne as a potential chancellor

It is true that the poll would still give the Tories a majority, albeit a slimmer one, and that the voters are still saying they would prefer Cameron to Brown after the next election. But this is still a remarkable recovery by Gordon Brown, with its direction likely to cause much soul-searching in Tory Central Office.

Tories in double poll shock

Today's Times Populus poll is a double-shocker for David Cameron. Not only has Labour narrowed the gap to three points, at 37-34, an extraordinarily poor showing for the Tories given the tales of economic woe that befall us on a daily basis (and Mori recently recorded 39-37). But for all the huffing and puffing about the European Treaty, only 37% of people think the Treaty is the same as the Constitution. Sure, people still say they want a referendum. But the poll suggests that Europe is not the issue the Tories (or some of Nick Clegg's excitable troops) think it is.

Perhaps it is Cameron who has lost most direction?

I wouldn't argue with Charles Clarke that the government could do a better job of explaining where it is going (though I do wonder whether his aggressive interventions will help them to get there); Progress is right to say that 'safety first' won't win us another term; and Jackie Ashley is right to argue the importance of better delivery. But the latest polling figures suggest that David Cameron may have an even bigger task on his hands, with a one-point deficit on Mori and a relatively small ICM lead (even if it is a little bigger than the Guardian ICM poll). The Sunday commentariat certainly thought the Conway affair hardly helped in this regard, not least Matthew D'Ancona in a bullish piece for the Telegraph and Miranda Green in the Observer.

Reasons to be cheerful?

It has not been the best of weeks for the Government. What with Peter Hain's resignation, the stock market jitters, Martin Bright's sudden discovery that he didn't like Ken and Polly Toynbee becoming upset that Gordon is building prisons and keeping police pay in check, one might expect Labour to be in the doldrums. But the polls are suggesting something different.

• Today's ICM poll for the Guardian has the Tory lead down at a mere two points (although another poll suggests a larger if falling lead).


• In London, Ken has actually extended his lead over Boris. And today we learn that Boris is not exactly whiter than white when it comes to potential conflicts of interest.

Good for Gordon?

What is it with newspaper front pages these days? Today's Times proclaims that its poll will wipe the smile off Gordon's makeover. Really? Given that it places former PR-man Dave Cameron's 'new' Tories just four points ahead of Labour - a fact buried at the end of a tendentious story - and that much sampling was done before the PM's impressive New Year foray began, why should that be? Peter Riddell has a rather more sensible take - as one would expect - within the paper. It is true that Cameron does well on some personal characteristics. But with a strong new chief of staff in no 10, whose role includes strategic communications (something I have argued was needed) and some very strong messages on the NHS and pay policy over recent days, Cameron is the one who should be worried. In fact, given how his elevation has hit the Tories, all we need is for Lib Dem leader Nick Clegg to do something popular and the Tory lead could be wiped out.

Recovering from another worst ever week in the history of politics

What is it about journalists in the Westminster village? Having been close to the political scene for some twenty years, I have lost count of the amount of hyperbole that passes for serious commentary at the end of a difficult week for the government. The loss of the child benefit computer disc clearly ranks high in the civil service stupidity stakes; and nearly as high on the ministerial embarrassment stakes. But if the disc has not fallen into the hands of fraudsters, it is utterly absurd to compare the last week either to the petrol crisis of 2000, or particularly to Black Wednesday in terms of its long-term political impact. Jack Straw is right about that. Equally, the crisis at Northern Rock reflects (a) a rather risky business model and (b) a series of unpalatable choices for the Chancellor, but is hardly a sign of his incompetence.

That said, there is no question that the government has got itself into a hole. The polls are not good (though they are not as good for the Tories as they should be either and voters blame civil servants not ministers for the loss of the disc). And the silly decision to keep public options open on an autumn election has been compounded by an appearance of incompetence since. That's why the government needs to do two things.

First, it needs to be bolder in its approach to reform. The idea that you can get a clear message across while trying to be all things to all men hasn't worked. We have, for example, just had a Tory schools policy that is largely a carbon copy - with one or two exceptions - of government policy that is already in place. Yet the Tories are being allowed to appear to be brilliant innovators. It is time to shout not shirk from what the government is doing successfully and to worry more about winning over parents that silencing the teaching unions. The same applies across the government's policy agenda. Second, I hope reports in today's Observer are right and the PM is widening his circle of advice. He has good people in no 10, but he would benefit from a more open approach to policy development. And third, the government needs to find a narrative that shows how it is successfully delivering on a lot of fronts. The Prime Minister's delivery unit needs the sort of empowerment it had when it was first set up to ensure that policy is delivered, not just announced. That may produce guffaws from the government's opponents this weekend. But there is plenty of evidence around of successful delivery on once difficult areas of policy. Delivery matters as much as policy development.

A good Queen's Speech

Today's Queen's Speech has a stronger sense of purpose than Gordon Brown's critics give him credit for. The raising of the education participation age has been accompanied by a welcome recognition that it is apprenticeships and part-time work-based training that will be key to its successful implementation. Yesterday's paper (pdf) from Ed Balls was a good start in putting flesh on a policy that will still be a hard sell. Nobody should doubt the need for further security measures, though as David Aaronovitch points out today, there is still some confusion in people's minds about the issue. There are sensible measures on nuclear power and climate change; and to increase house building and tackle hospital hygiene. Moreover, with little fanfare, the latest Populus poll for The Times puts Labour one point ahead and leaves Brown ahead of Cameron on important leadership questions, despite some narrowing of the gap. The challenge now for the Prime Minister is to turn the seriousness of purpose in this Queen's Speech into strong goverance matched by a proper sense of strategic direction. But regardless of the Cameron jokes, today should go some way towards undoing the damage of the conference season.

Level pegging

Today's Ipsos/Mori poll for the Observer suggests that Labour has recovered some ground from recent polling setbacks, and is now one point ahead of the Tories on 41-40, with the Lib-Dems badly trailing on 13%. What is worrying for Gordon Brown is that his personal ratings are level-pegging with David Cameron, as Brown has badly lost as much ground as Cameron has gained in the last month. But Brown is hoping that a concerned policy drive will regain lost ground. However, it is important, particularly over PMQs, that the PM treats Cameron as a political opponent and loses the personal animus described in the Observer. He needs to give as good as he gets on Wednesdays, and that is about more than good briefing (though when I was in no 10, it was certainly part of my job to make sure the then PM had punchy to the point briefing on education issues on a Wednesday regardless of the quality of the original product from the Department.) The PM must recognise that levity is as important in PMQs as facts (though having good ones are vital too).

Brown's challenge

Today's polls, giving the Tories leads of 4 and 7 points cap a bad week for Gordon Brown, though his personal ratings remain stronger than David Cameron. Contrary to the excitable reports on some of the media, as Anthony Wells points out, it puts the Tory lead back to their March levels, and is not quite the 'biggest lead in 15 years'. Moreover, these figures are truly woeful for the Liberal Democrats, as Labour's vote at 36-38% is higher than earlier this year when it was 30-33% - Labour needs a Liberal Democrat recovery at the Tories' expense to win in key marginals.

But that isn't the main message of the last week. Polls are very volatile at the moment, and it is possible for Brown to recover. But as John Hutton told Andrew Marr this morning, this will require him to set out a very clear vision of where he wants to take Britain and his government in the months ahead. And it needs to be about more than neutralising his perceived weaknesses of the Blair years or his opponents' tax plans, though the latter was probably good politics and in a better week would have been seen as such. Brown showed he could deal with crises during the summer, and he probably owes his continued strong personal ratings to that; he must now show how is proactively going to lead the country as a reformer at home - focusing not just on those areas he championed as Chancellor, but on wider public service reform - and as a force for change in the wider world, championing environment and global poverty issues. As Andrew Rawnsley puts it in today's Observer

He needs to prove that he can be a good governor. That means spending less time obsessing over how he can wrong-foot his opponents and much more time thinking
about how he can put the country right. That demands more statesmanship and less gamesmanship. It's a strange thing to say about a man who waited for the job for so long, but the thing that Gordon Brown most needs to do is act like a leader. If he wants to be a long-term Prime Minister, then he needs to start behaving like one.

His ability to meet that challenge will decide whether the last fortnight was a blip or the beginning of something more serious.

That vision thing

Yesterday was not the best day of Gordon Brown's life. An uncomfortable press conference, a sneering media and a revitalised opposition combined to undo his carefully cultivated image of the summer. However, a new Populus poll in today's Times suggests that he retains strong underlying support: Labour is two points ahead of the Tories on 40-38%. The conference season may have strengthened the confidence of Tory supporters in the economic wisdom of their leaders, but it has had little impact on other voters. Brown and Alastair Darling remain well ahead on economic trust: Darling must reinforce that impression with his pre-budget report and spending review announcements today. But all this won't be enough in the medium to long-term. It is to be hoped that Brown has now had his share of mini-disasters. So he needs to demonstrate strength on the public services. That means more than keeping the basic Blair reforms; he must embrace them as his own. In his first weeks, Brown threw a few bones to anti-academy backbenchers, but as Fiona Millar demonstrates in today's Guardian, those campaigners won't be satisfied without abolishing Academies - the most successful sustained effort to tackle school failure in decades. Brown should ignore these siren voices, and talk up Academies. It isn't difficult: their improvements continue to outpace other schools, and their structures present a readymade picture of progress for the voters. By all means continue with efforts to boost the 3Rs too, but don't underplay Academies. Equally, Brown must become a stronger reformer on the NHS and police: after all, he faces the charge that as Chancellor, he poured money into pay and staffing with little return on productivity. So he is right to personalise these services, and demand weekend surgeries. But he must be bolder in saying where he believes things should be ten years hence. That should be the vision which, as he himself says, he now has the freedom to explain.

To call or not to call (2)

Despite the raft of polls, suggesting a narrower lead for Labour over the Tories in the wake of the Blackpool conference, I think an election is probably more rather than less likely. But I find Martin Kettle's arguments in today's Guardian persuasive. So should Gordon.

Cameron's continuing collapse (3)

Two more polls this morning confirming the trend in the Channel 4 News poll, and suggesting that not too much can be read into Thursday's by-election results. A Populus poll for the Times gives Labour 41% to the Tories' 31%, while YouGov in the Telegraph puts Labour on 43% and the Tories on 32%. If Gordon Brown is looking for good polling data to help decide on an autumn election, he won't be disappointed. As Peter Riddell notes in the Times, Brown has a clear edge in Populus over Cameron on key leadership attributes: by 59 to 30 per cent on having what it takes to be a good prime minister, and by 60 to 45 per cent on caring about the problems faced by ordinary people. The Yougov poll is particularly devastating for Cameron: substantial majorities of voters brand him as out of touch, a bad leader and insubstantial. Even on the environment, fewer than a third of people think his plans to tax their holiday flights brave and courageous. To say he faces an uphill struggle at Blackpool gives new meaning to the concept of an understatement.

Sunderland's signal

The Tories are clearly trying to spook Gordon Brown against having an immediate general election, by talking up their victory in a by-election in Sunderland last night. A swing to Labour in marginal Dover is far more significant. Yet after a few good weeks of by-elections, the run of last night's results could be read as suggesting that Labour's luck is starting to run out. But Brown shouldn't make his decision on an election on the basis of a few by-elections with low turnouts. An important finding in the Channel 4/You Gov poll earlier this week was that few people actually want an autumn poll, including most Labour supporters. A November poll could cause resentment, and many of them to stay at home. That, as well as whatever private polling he is seeing this weekend, should affect his final decision.
UPDATE: Luke Akehurst has his usual exhaustive take on the by-elections here. There are clearly some odd shifts in Dover, but some apparently good results in Chester-le-Street and Mansfield. Seeing the figures suggests the Tory night of triumph was more a triumph of Central Office spin. They really don't want an early election, do they?