If the PM is feeling sorry for himself, he might draw a moment's comfort that his position is not as bad as that of the once dominant Fianna Fail party and its hapless leader Brian Cowen in Ireland.
A poll in today's Irish Times puts Fianna Fail on just 17% of the vote, seven points behind Ireland's Labour Party and 17 points behind Fine Gael. Even worse, the FF-Green Coalition government has a net satisfaction rating of -74%, with even 50% of the died in the wool FF loyalists fed up with Cowen's performance. 75% of people want an election now, though unless the Greens pull the plug they are unlikely to get one.
Like Brown, Cowen was finance minister under his predecessor Bertie Ahern. But his truly appalling performances on TV and on public occasions make Brown seem like a supreme communicator. When I was in Ireland in August, I encountered an extraordinary degree of universal loathing there is for Fianna Fail and Cowen, where previously one would encounter as many supporters as detractors for the party.
But there is evidence eveywhere of the effects of the recession, from half-completed developments to bargains (at least in Irish terms) in the property market. Public servants have taken enforced pay cuts, and (probably quite sensible) government plans to set up a bad bank for the debts of Irish banks attract almost universal scepticism. I suggested some months ago that we might be seeing the death of Fianna Fail as the remarkable nationalist and populist force created by DeValera in 1926. This poll suggests the destiny of Dev's soldiers is to become Ireland's third party - if they're lucky.
UPDATE: The Greens are clearly getting jittery.
Showing posts with label Brian Cowen. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Brian Cowen. Show all posts
Thursday, 3 September 2009
Monday, 23 March 2009
Lost Tiger
This month's Progress carries an extended and updated version of a blog posting I wrote last month about the Irish experience of the recession and some parallels between Taoiseach Brian Cowen's approach and that of David Cameron's Tories. The piece is finally online here.
Friday, 13 February 2009
The death of Fianna Fail?
It used to be a given that Ireland was what some political scientists called a two-and-a-half party system, with the two parties that had emerged from the bloody civil wars of the twenties, Fianna Fail and Fine Gael, the Tweedledum and Tweedledee of Irish politics, and Irish Labour destined to play a poor third as occasional coalition partner.
Fianna Fail always had a dodgier reputation, exacerbated by Charlie Haughey's appalling corruption, but it had also become the natural party of government, a position recently crystallised by Bertie Ahern's decade in power. Even if there were two big parties, Fianna Fail was always the larger of the two.
And that's the context in which to read this morning's extraordinary Irish Times opinion poll. For the first time in history, the Irish Labour Party on 24% has overtaken Fianna Fail at 22% and pushed the party of DeValera into third place, with Fine Gael in the lead on a reduced 32% (Sinn Fein, the Greens and Independents get 8%, 4% and 9% respectively). Brian Cowen, whose abysmal leadership of his party has been marked by an approach to the economy similar to that advocated by David Cameron and George Osborne, has begun to kill his party.
Fianna Fail used to be a bit dodgy; it was never politically inept before. After huge public spending cuts and efforts to take medical cards from pensioners, satisfaction with the Government is just 14%, and Fianna Fail support in Dublin a mere 13%. Labour has had its false dawns before: it reached similar levels of popularity under Dick Spring in the early 90s but lost it by going into coalition with Fianna Fail; and it had a few heady years in the 60s too. But its leader Eamon Gilmore has had a good recession, and the polling speaks for itself.
There is only one phrase to describe what's happening in Irish politics today - that coined by the late Conor Cruise O'Brien in different circumstances - grotesque, unbelievable, bizarre and unprecedented or GUBU.
This post was picked up by Chris Paul and Politics in Ireland.
Fianna Fail always had a dodgier reputation, exacerbated by Charlie Haughey's appalling corruption, but it had also become the natural party of government, a position recently crystallised by Bertie Ahern's decade in power. Even if there were two big parties, Fianna Fail was always the larger of the two.
And that's the context in which to read this morning's extraordinary Irish Times opinion poll. For the first time in history, the Irish Labour Party on 24% has overtaken Fianna Fail at 22% and pushed the party of DeValera into third place, with Fine Gael in the lead on a reduced 32% (Sinn Fein, the Greens and Independents get 8%, 4% and 9% respectively). Brian Cowen, whose abysmal leadership of his party has been marked by an approach to the economy similar to that advocated by David Cameron and George Osborne, has begun to kill his party.
Fianna Fail used to be a bit dodgy; it was never politically inept before. After huge public spending cuts and efforts to take medical cards from pensioners, satisfaction with the Government is just 14%, and Fianna Fail support in Dublin a mere 13%. Labour has had its false dawns before: it reached similar levels of popularity under Dick Spring in the early 90s but lost it by going into coalition with Fianna Fail; and it had a few heady years in the 60s too. But its leader Eamon Gilmore has had a good recession, and the polling speaks for itself.
There is only one phrase to describe what's happening in Irish politics today - that coined by the late Conor Cruise O'Brien in different circumstances - grotesque, unbelievable, bizarre and unprecedented or GUBU.
This post was picked up by Chris Paul and Politics in Ireland.
Wednesday, 4 February 2009
Ireland shows the Tory approach to the recession in action
The Conservatives used to be fond of urging people to look to Ireland for an example of how to organise your tax system. They have gone a little silent on the subject of late. I can't see why, since the hapless Irish Taoiseach Brian Cowen is following the Cameron-Osborne prescription for what to do in a recession almost to the letter.
Cowen has increased VAT while Britain reduced it, which has led to a mass cross-border exodus to the bargain prices of Newry and a big VAT-induced boost for stores there. He delayed a bank bailout for months which has contributed to unemployment rising above 9 per cent. Now he is cutting public spending by slashing the pay of civil servants by imposing a levy of up to 9.6 per cent on their gross earnings to cut the Government contribution to pensions.
Gordon Brown should stop calling the Tories the Do Nothing party. He should spell out exactly what their prescription has meant for John Redwood's favourite low tax economy.
This post has been picked up by Slugger O'Toole and Hopi Sen.
Cowen has increased VAT while Britain reduced it, which has led to a mass cross-border exodus to the bargain prices of Newry and a big VAT-induced boost for stores there. He delayed a bank bailout for months which has contributed to unemployment rising above 9 per cent. Now he is cutting public spending by slashing the pay of civil servants by imposing a levy of up to 9.6 per cent on their gross earnings to cut the Government contribution to pensions.
Gordon Brown should stop calling the Tories the Do Nothing party. He should spell out exactly what their prescription has meant for John Redwood's favourite low tax economy.
This post has been picked up by Slugger O'Toole and Hopi Sen.
Sunday, 26 October 2008
Fianna Fail loses the plot - and its political touch
One unexpected casualty of the global economic crisis has been the political sureness of touch of the self-styled natural party of government in Ireland. Ever since Eamon DeValera found a way to overcome his principles to sit in the Dail, despite having to declare allegiance to the British crown, Fianna Fail has been the party where pragmatism and populism have been blended to perfection, to their enormous electoral advantage and the frustrated fury of its opponents.
Bertie Ahern, whose tenure as Taoiseach coincided with Tony Blair's as British Prime Minister, perfected the art. But his semi-forced resignation earlier this year has seen his party take leave of its senses. The bluff former finance minister Brian Cowen has been a disaster as Taoiseach, and his own finance minister Brian Lenihan surprisingly seems to lack his father's political antennae: a tough budget ten days ago - forced by a sharp downturn in public finances - saw them proposing to take away the medical cards of many pensioners aged over 70, forcing them to pay medical bills above €100 a month, and to levy a 1% tax on everyone, even those on the minimum wage (health care is not universally free in Ireland).
The prospect of thousands of irate pensioners descending on Dublin combined with the disbelief of their populist backbenchers and the acute embarrassment of their Green coalition allies to force an almost complete U-turn. But the result has been that Fianna Fail will never again be regarded as the political pacesetters in Ireland. It has reached a low of just 26% in a new poll (against 33% for Fine Gael and 15% for Labour). Irish politics will surely never be the same again. No wonder Bertie broke a leg this week.
Bertie Ahern, whose tenure as Taoiseach coincided with Tony Blair's as British Prime Minister, perfected the art. But his semi-forced resignation earlier this year has seen his party take leave of its senses. The bluff former finance minister Brian Cowen has been a disaster as Taoiseach, and his own finance minister Brian Lenihan surprisingly seems to lack his father's political antennae: a tough budget ten days ago - forced by a sharp downturn in public finances - saw them proposing to take away the medical cards of many pensioners aged over 70, forcing them to pay medical bills above €100 a month, and to levy a 1% tax on everyone, even those on the minimum wage (health care is not universally free in Ireland).
The prospect of thousands of irate pensioners descending on Dublin combined with the disbelief of their populist backbenchers and the acute embarrassment of their Green coalition allies to force an almost complete U-turn. But the result has been that Fianna Fail will never again be regarded as the political pacesetters in Ireland. It has reached a low of just 26% in a new poll (against 33% for Fine Gael and 15% for Labour). Irish politics will surely never be the same again. No wonder Bertie broke a leg this week.
Friday, 13 June 2008
Has Cowen blown Lisbon?
The early tallies - and they are usually reliable - suggest a victory for the No campaign in the Irish referendum on Lisbon. If so, the result owes a lot to confusion and Cowen. The new Fianna Fail leader started well but went downhill quickly thereafter, substituting his foul tongue for serious debate and crudely attacking the opposition parties at a time when he needed their support.
The Yes campaign was shambolic, where the clever and well-funded No campaign caught the popular imagination. Instead of coming together with a consistent message and a seriousness of purpose, the main Irish political parties seemed more concerned to do their own thing, resulting in posters boasting dismal portraits of the party leaders and screeds of unco-ordinated reasons to vote Yes which were only marginally more readable than the text itself.
As with all such Irish referenda, many of the No arguments were specious and irrelevant to Lisbon; but when confusion replaced coherence on the Yes side, it was inevitable that many of them would be believed. But - aside from the European Commission and those seeking a more coherent structural organisation for EU bodies - the big loser from the Irish referendum is Brian Cowen, whose Biffo nickname will surely be uttered with feeling in the corridors of Berlaymont today.
The Yes campaign was shambolic, where the clever and well-funded No campaign caught the popular imagination. Instead of coming together with a consistent message and a seriousness of purpose, the main Irish political parties seemed more concerned to do their own thing, resulting in posters boasting dismal portraits of the party leaders and screeds of unco-ordinated reasons to vote Yes which were only marginally more readable than the text itself.
As with all such Irish referenda, many of the No arguments were specious and irrelevant to Lisbon; but when confusion replaced coherence on the Yes side, it was inevitable that many of them would be believed. But - aside from the European Commission and those seeking a more coherent structural organisation for EU bodies - the big loser from the Irish referendum is Brian Cowen, whose Biffo nickname will surely be uttered with feeling in the corridors of Berlaymont today.
Friday, 9 May 2008
Cowen's imaginative reshuffle
Ireland's new Taoiseach Brian Cowen has made an imaginative start with the new cabinet he announced on Wednesday, with the promotion of the able rising star Mary Coughlan (left) as Tanaiste and Trade minister and the effective Brian Lenihan as Finance minister. His coalition agreement makes it impossible to move Mary Harney from health, where she has had a stormy time, though she is trying to push vital reform; or the more impressive John Gormley, a Green environment minister. However, moving Mary Hanafin from education to a family ministry is a shamful appeasement of the teaching unions who disliked her belief that parents deserved to be informed about schools. (Ireland's bizarre Freedom of Information laws ban parents from seeing school exam results or inspection reports, measures taken at the behest of the unions). It is doubtful her successor Batt O'Keeffe will go down as a great education reformer. Michael Martin's continued rise is confirmed, with a move to foreign affairs that should give him a higher profile in Britain. All in all, it suggested sure-footedness by Cowen and a fresher feel (education aside) to a government that is facing a much sharper economic downturn after the UK, a result of its spectacular recent growth. Despite this, Labour under Eamonn Gilmore and the hapless Fine Gael leader Enda Kenny face an even tougher task with Fianna Fail's refreshing than they did while Bertie was still in post.
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