An indictment of Thabo Mbeki

News that the MDC leader Morgan Tsvangirai - who on any legitimate basis should already be running Zimbabwe - has felt obliged to withdraw from this week's election in the face of the most appalling campaign of intimidation by Zanu-PF is an indictment not just of Robert Mugabe and his henchmen, but of his closest comrade Thabo Mbeki as well.

That Mbeki has failed to persuade his friend to run a free and fair election shows the utter bankruptcy of his policy of silent engagement. And his failure is not only likely to result in renewed misery for millions of Zimbabweans, but also for his own countrymen who face the prospect of a further influx of refugees from Mugabe's tyranny.

The time has come for Southern African countries to act (preferably with some support from the United Nations, though few would hold their breath waiting for it). If that means Mbeki persuading Mugabe that he can leave now that he has "won", so be it. At least his friendship might do the country a favour. But inaction can surely no longer be an option. Which means that South Africa must show leadership in supporting the Zimbabwean people in their time of need.

Can we avert a Zimbabwean nightmare?

Watching last night's shocking BBC Newsnight and Channel 4 News reports from inside Zimbabwe, it is hard to see how Robert Mugabe can fail to steal the presidential election. His torture camps for dissidents, his hijacking of the media and his use of the state security apparatus to cling to power stack the odds against Morgan Tsvangirai and his MDC party. Yet, even amidst such gruesome provocation, people were telling reporters that they would vote against Mugabe.

The United Nations attitude has predictably been low key, as its wont when any country goes to war against its own people. It should be condemning in the strongest terms the destruction of democracy. But the real tragedy has been the lack of guts among many of Mugabe's Southern African neighbours, not least the gloriously wrongheaded South African leader Thabo Mbeki, whose continued embrace of Mugabe amidst it all has succeeded in making his successor Jacob Zuma appear statesmanlike.

That is why we should salute the Swazi parliamentarian Marwick Khumalo (pictured), who heads the Southern African observers of this increasingly farcical poll, for his no-nonsense condemnation of the violence, for laying the blame where it belongs at ZANU-PF's door and for promising not to endorse the run-off if the violence continues. And we should also congratulate Botswana for its strong condemnation, the more powerful as it comes from a country which has a successful democracy since independence.

Meanwhile, I share Iain Dale's suggestion that the rest of us who feel so powerless should donate to the Friends of Zimbabwe in their efforts to give people the chance - however remote it may seem - of a fair election.

Crisis, what crisis?

South African President Thabo Mbeki has his reasons for being grateful to Robert Mugabe, the defeated Zimbabwean leader who refuses to go gracefully. After all, Harare provided his African National Congress with sanctuary during the dying days of apartheid. But there is no excuse whatsoever for his lily-livered refusal to acknowledge the will of the people of that country in his absurd statement that 'there is no crisis' in Zimbabwe. If, after a fortnight, a defeated President is refusing to allow the Electoral Commission to publish the results of the poll, what is that if not a crisis? If thugs calling themselves 'war veterans' are beating up opposition supporters for voting for the MDC, presumably with Mugabe's blessing, what is that if not a crisis? The Southern African countries reasonably want to take responsibility for the future of their region, and not be beholden to the former colonial powers. Mbeki's ANC successor Jacob Zuma, for all his own shady history, has recognised the truth about Zimbabwe. Why can Mbeki not do so? Or are we to assume that the leader of Africa's most important economy has as much understanding of the meaning of democracy as he has about his country's most debilitating disease?