Tuesday, 18 December 2007
Clegg's impact on the Conservatives
Iain Dale has already decided that Nick Clegg, the new leader of the Liberal Democrats, will be forming a coalition with ex-PR man David Cameron after the next election. Isn't it just as likely that the Liberal Democrats will start to recapture their polling support, reducing that of the Conservatives back to the mid-thirties?
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No, it really isn't. The third party in British politics is only ever comparatively popular when the other two are both doing badly, and their current comparative malaise goes back to the Cameron coup in the Tory Party. As the Tories revive at the expense of the Socialists it is likely that the Liberals too will either continue to decline or change direction politically (becoming tougher on civil liberties and economic de-regulation, for example) - or maybe they'll do both and rest of the world will be none the wiser.
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