A liberal curriculum?

Apparently, David Laws, the new Liberal Democrat schools spokesman, is planning to free up the curriculum and leave it to teachers to decide exactly what they teach. They'll have the power to set their own curriculum (and perhaps also mark tests, inspect themselves and decide whether to bother telling parents how their school is doing). Just like in the old days. Before we had a national curriculum. When only 40% of kids could read and write to a reasonable standard at age 11. That's what it says in the Times. But is Laws really planning this? Further down the story, we're told he only wants to give schools "freedoms to innovate with the curriculum" just like Academies (and just like Estelle Morris did as Education Secretary, though few took up the offer). Does this mean the National Curriculum would be scrapped or doesn't it? Is this a neat way of ditching the producerist policies of the LibDems while pretending otherwise (there's lots of talk of choice in the article, though choice is meaningless unless it is informed). Not that Liberal policy matters much in the greater scheme of things, but I feel we should be told.

A question of trust

"Is it any surprise -after Iraq and ten years of spin and lies - that the public don't trust Labour on Northern Rock?", asks Stephen Glover with a mixture of synthetic anger and wishful thinking in today's Daily Mail. Sorry, Stephen, better luck next time. First, today's ICM poll for the Guardian records Labour on 40% and the Tories on 32%, with Brown enjoying huge public confidence as PM and Cameron sinking below Ming Campbell in personal approval ratings. Then, a Times/Populus Poll not only finds that most voters blame Northern Rock or the American mortgage market for the problems of the last few days, it shows public trust for Brown/Darling on the economy at 56% compared to 18% for Cameron/Osborne. Clearly the public still trust Labour in a crisis, and were deeply unimpressed with Cameron's pathetic attempts to talk the economy down last weekend.

Higher expectations

Today's OECD report on education internationally, though reported with the usual negative spin in some of the media, is actually a welcome corrective to the education debate in Britain. First, far from having too many graduates, we are in danger of having too few, as our graduate numbers are growing too slowly to keep up with our competitors. Second, there is still a substantial earnings premium from having a degree. And third, we spend more on schools, particularly pre-school, than most other countries, and pay teachers better. Yes, we still underperform on staying on rates at 16 (though not as badly as before) and our young people's aspirations don't match their potential (perhaps because they and their families spend too much time reading newspapers telling them they are useless). But ministers are right to say that this is a story of real improvement.

In mixed company

Iain Dale has kindly listed me in his top 10 new blogs for his forthcoming Guide to Political Blogging (probably the only thing I have in common with John Redwood). I have also written a piece for the Guide, which is published next week.

Deja vu for Dave

Ben Brogan has some worrying news for David Cameron: Graham Brady, who helped spark the grammar schools fiasco for the Tories earlier in the summer, will be speaking at a fringe meeting in support of grammars at the party conference. What was the policy again? No new grammars, except where there are existing grammars (maybe). That's clear, then.

Poor substitute

Can't we just have our Sky channels back - plus Sky Arts while you're at it - instead of this rubbish, Mr Branson, please?

Pupil power

Here's a story that probably won't get too much attention. But it represents a very important change in how our schools are run. Andrew Adonis, the schools minister is today hailing the value of school councils, where students learn responsibility through taking some for the running of their schools. When such stories reach the media, it is usually through scornful pieces about pupils telling teachers what to do or snitching to inspectors. But this is a far more important development than that. School councils are one of the best ways of maximising a school's success in getting through to pupils, in improving discipline and respect, and in teaching the sort of 'soft skills' the lack of which are regularly bemoaned by our business leaders. Let's hear it for pupil power (and responsibility)!

All-Ireland politics

Now that Fianna Fail has announced its plans to organise in Northern Ireland - and perhaps even to merge with the SDLP - there is no reason why the Irish and British Labour Parties should not ensure that voters of all backgrounds have the chance to vote Labour. Both parties should ensure there are Labour candidates in every constituency. I used to oppose this idea, but times have changed. Bertie and Sinn Fein shouldn't have a free run.

Palin's new Europe

Michael Palin's latest series on The New Europe (Sunday nights, BBC 1) had a brilliant start last night with visits to Slovenia, Croatia, Bosnia, Serbia and Albania. It is excellent to see the programme enjoyed 7.5 million viewers. Albania presented itself as if to caricature and clearly failed to impress Palin, but the most moving testimony came in Sarajevo and Mostar, where Palin talked gently to local people who had experienced the full effect of the terrible war in the nineties. Lest we forget, this war which left Sarajevo under siege for three years and dotted with landmines for the next seventy years, happened with the connivance and complicity of the Major government. Indeed some of those whose inaction allowed so many to perish have the gall to present themselves as honest brokers in debates on foreign policy today. It is good to be reminded so elegantly of just what the war meant to so many people's lives.

Twigg's triumph

Well done to Stephen Twigg for defeating Bob Wareing to become Labour candidate for Liverpool West Derby yesterday. Stephen lost his Enfield seat in 2005, having held it for eight years after his celebrated victory over Michael Portillo in 1997. Stephen will be a big asset to the next parliament.
UPDATE: Bob Wareing is hardly graceful in defeat. He plans to stand as an independent. I'm with Tom Watson on this one.

Poll position

Labour is entering the conference season ahead of the Tories (and well ahead of Ming's squeezed Liberal Democrats). A ComRes poll in today's Independent and the latest Yougov in yesterday's Sunday Times have given Labour leads of three and five points respectively. What's more, YouGov shows 65% of people think Gordon Brown is doing a good job, with only 17% believing otherwise. David Cameron has only 29% favourable, 55% negative, comparable to Ming's 43% negative, 24% positive rating. Moreover, the Tories' green gimmickry fails to impress the voters, which may explain their poor showing. Whether the troubles of Northern Rock impact on polling figures remains to be seen, though voters may not appreciate the disgraceful attempts by David Cameron to talk the economy down. After all, his advice to Norman Lamont as Britain crashed out of the ERM hardly inspired confidence, did it?

Two Days in Paris

We saw Julie Delpy's quirky but engaging comedy of manners, Two Days in Paris, yesterday. The story of a French woman and her American boyfriend (played brilliantly by Adam Goldberg) coming to terms with the very different attitudes of her friends, family and the local taxi-drivers in Paris, it is amusing well-acted entertainment which delightfully captures the cultural and linguistic divide that the Atlantic Ocean represents. Delpy stars, has written the script and some of the music, and directed the movie.

It's the economy, stupid

While David Cameron and his chums John Gummer and Zac Goldsmith spent the day switching off Tory voters in droves with his eccentric environmental wheezes, Gordon Brown has established an extraordinary lead on the economy, according to Populus. If the economy were to face problems, 61% of voters - including a quarter of Tories and two thirds of Liberal Democrats - would want Gordon in charge rather than Cameron and George Osborne. Isn't that what we mean by a 'wellbeing economy' in the words of the new flat earther's handbook (pdf)?

Stuck in the middle with you

Peter Riddell has shown just how close Gordon Brown is now perceived as being to where the British public stand on the issues. In office, he is drawing heavily on the Tony Blair textbook. And he is enjoying upsetting David Cameron by the day. No politician will succeed by tilting too far to the right or to the left, flash or not.
UPDATE: Neal Lawson is upset that the ad was created by Saatchi and Saatchi. What must really upset him is that Gordon has ignored the advice he has been doling out since he set up Compass.

Classroom politics

I have written the cover feature for this week's Public Finance magazine, comparing the education policies of the two main parties. You can read it here.

University challenge

Universities secretary John Denham is right to focus university expansion on older, more mature students. Today's announcement that 15,000 workers' degree places will be created is good news. The 2010 target for 50% participation among 18-30 year-olds - one that looks challenging for 2010, but less so a few years later - was always going to be met largely through older workers, not young people. The challenge with young people is to ensure that bright pupils don't miss their chance to go to university, and that those with the right grades have an equal chance of getting to Russell Group universities as their better connected private school peers.

More good news for Hillary

This week's CNN Opinion Research poll(pdf) is excellent news for Hillary Clinton. She has got twice as much support as the flailing Barack Obama among Democrats for the party's nomination. She is four points clear of Giuliani in national rankings. And Fred Thompson, the Law and Order candidate, whom Hillary would beat hands down, is just one point behind Giuliani for the Republican nomination.

No crowing please

I had the pleasure of being up in London for a series of meetings on the day of Bob Crow's ludicrous underground strike. His brothers and sisters at the TUC must have been equally pleased, if the results of the TUC general council elections are anything to go by, as reported by Luke Akehurst.

Union madness

Let me get this straight. Trade unions that want to increase the degree of social legislation from Brussels are signing up to a referendum on Europe being promoted by the forces of Euroscepticism who want to scrap what European protection there already is. Meanwhile Jackie Ashley, the co-leader of Guardianistas for Gordon, is telling the PM he is sunk without one. The truth is that the only reason the Daily Telegraph and Tories want a referendum on a treaty that tinkers with the constitution in order to accommodate a larger Europe, is (a) to embarrass Gordon and Labour and (b) to defeat the European cause. There is no merit whatsoever in Brown holding a referendum that he would lose. And there is no more need for one now than when Thatcher signed the rather more radical Maastricht Treaty. Gordon should stick to his guns and ignore the Tories and their new allies.
UPDATE: Recess Monkey captures the full extent of public enthusiasm for the referendum.

Smokefree success

Now that we have evidence from Scotland that the smoking ban has significantly improved the health of smokers and non-smokers alike, perhaps the loopy pro-smoking lobbyists, Forest, could apologise and shut up shop?

Child's play

I have some sympathy with the authors of the latest letter to the Telegraph from children's experts when they complain that an ultra-cautious society has made it too diffficult for children to play in parks or enclosed streets. But their assertion that children don't play enough because there is too much testing is too silly for words. Before the age of 14 there are two short sets of tests for all: one at seven has moved so far from being a serious national test as to be unrecognisable; those at eleven are the only independent measure we have of whether 11 year-olds - not five or six-year olds - can read, write and add up. Of course, children need more freedom to play. They also need the 3Rs if they aren't to spend the rest of their lives playing around.

Have the faith

I am delighted to see that the government is reasserting the importance of faith schools, and keeping to a commitment made in the 2005 education white paper to enable more such schools to move from the unregulated independent sector into the regulated maintained sector. Faith schools can be one of the best ways of increasing social mobility for ethnic minority communities: for all their flaws that is exactly what Catholic schools in Britain did for the Irish.

Fruits for labour

Alan Johnson's plan to give pregnant women cash to buy fruit and vegetables makes sense from a nutritional point of view. And I can see why it is right not to load it down with bureaucracy by creating, for example, more tax credits. But couldn't they provide £100 worth of fruit and veg vouchers - or a debit card - that would be accepted at any supermarket or fruit and veg store instead? And couldn't it then be rather better targeted?

Atonement - stylish but slight

We saw Atonement, the stylish adaptation of Ian McEwan's tale of lost love, wrongful accusation and the travails of War, last night. The cast are universally good, though Saoirse Ronan as the young and spiteful Briony steals the show from the much-hyped Keira Knightley and increasingly impressive James McAvoy. The film is beautifully shot and familiar figures like Gina McKee and Vanessa Redgrave offer splendid supporting performances. In particular, the chaos of Dunkirk as soldiers await evacuation is extraordinarily captured in a five-minute scene worthy of Hieronymus Bosch. But after it is all over - and the ending twist is moving - there is a niggling feeling that it may not quite add up to the sum of its parts. It is, though, well worth seeing.

Galloway loses respect for Respect

George Galloway seems to be falling out big time with his comrades in Respect. Luke Akehurst has a highly entertaining link here. And to think he hasn't even got Celebrity Big Brother to fall back on.

Lifting expectations

This is a more thoughtful piece of research by Donald Hirsch for the Joseph Rowntree Trust, deserving of rather more attention than the Staffordshire suppositions. Low expectations bedevil education in this country, and until we raise them among both teachers and pupils, we will not narrow the gap between the poorest and the best off youngsters. In fact, the evidence (pdf: see Table A) suggests that it is the skilled working classes who have gained most from educational improvements in recent years, but the bottom fifth (or probably tenth) have made fewer gains. Whether a wide-ranging children's review is the answer seems doubtful, though clearly both extended schools and Sure Start have a big role to play. Far more important will be maximising the number of youngsters who make the grade in the 3Rs as early as possible.

Specialists are a success story

According to a statistical analysis by academics at Staffordshire University, specialist schools only do a bit better than other comprehensives, but any benefit they enjoy is simply a result of the extra £129 per pupil that they receive. In fact, specialist schools have achieved results 12 percentage points ahead of non-specialists, comparing the proportions getting five good GCSEs, and last year's analysis showed an 11 point advantage including English and Maths. I don't know how many specialist schools these boffins have visited, but I have seen many where the gains of applying for and retaining specialist status translate into huge improvements in teaching and learning, better links with other schools, strong business links and better exam results. Even applying for specialist status can change a school's ethos and sense of purpose. What these academics seem to have ignored is the fact that huge differentials in funding between similar counties or boroughs don't translate into radically different results. For a rather sounder analysis of the exam effect of specialist status, it is worth reading Professor David Jesson's reports (pdf) which compare pupils with the same starting point in specialist and non-specialist status and don't start factoring in lots of other excuses for low achievement. They are rather more persuasive.

Gilmore's challenge

The Irish Labour Party has confirmed the unopposed election of Eamon Gilmore as Pat Rabbitte's replacement for leader. A postal ballot will decide between Joan Burton and Jan O'Sullivan for deputy. It is good that the party will have a woman deputy, but Gilmore, though undoubtedly able, feels a bit like more of the same. If he is to see the growth that Labour could achieve Gilmore must turn this part of his acceptance speech into more than mere rhetoric:

But to help change Ireland for the better, Labour itself has to change. We need to change the way we organise, becoming more open to new members and new candidates. We have to change the way we communicate, applying the most modern methods to get across our message. We have to be more positive, telling people what we are for and not just what we oppose. And we have to bond better with our voters and our potential voters to construct a new politics for and of the new Ireland.

Blasts from the past

David Cameron has today chosen The Sun to hit back at Michael Ancram and his other critics who accuse him of abandoning traditional Thatcherism in the pursuit of power. He calls them 'blasts from the past'. This is the same man who has come up with a brilliant new plan of non-compulsory citizens' service for school leavers. (Ignore the spin for The Sun) I'm afraid there's nothing new for The Sun here. David Blunkett had the same idea in 1995 and as education secretary introduced it: it is called Millennium Volunteers.

Dismal science

This is why economics is the dismal science. The number crunchers at the Office for National Statistics divide spending by GCSE results and claim 'productivity' in education is falling (or at least did so until a year ago and is now 'flat'). Their calculations are meaningless rubbish akin to quite a lot of what the statisticians come up with, even if the leader writers at the Torygraph have been salivating over them. Schools have improved immeasurably over recent years, as anyone who visits them can attest. A lot of the extra spending since 1997 has gone on paying teachers a decent salary, hiring teaching assistants, installing computers and rebuilding schools. It will take years to measure any effect of this spending on GCSE results. Even those who have had five years of the literacy hour have yet to take their GCSEs. When I worked in the DFES, the statisticians told me that there were still classes of over 40 well after we were sure we had got most classes down to 30. Given they had taken a census - and we had data for every primary school in the country - I asked them to tell me which schools they were so we might target extra teachers to them. A few days later the statistician returned, sheepishly, to inform me that the classes in question weren't actually classes at all. The data was based on where children were at 11am on a particular day in January. Those in 'classes of 40' were in assembly or watching a film with another class. I won't repeat any cliches about statistics.

Brown's personal bounce

Tim Hames is right in this morning's Times. Gordon Brown is now well ahead of his party in popularity, while David Cameron trails the Tories. Who would have thought it six months ago? Even this morning's Populus poll confirms the trend, though Brown clearly needs time to show what he can do to impress those who remain unimpressed.

Election fever

He is a tease, that Gordon Brown. But I don't believe there is going to be an autumn election, however much the press want it. Today's polls are a bit closer than those last week, and people want to see PM Brown in action before they have to vote again. It was only two years ago that they voted before, and this government is not exactly short of a majority.

Staying on

Labour wants youngsters to be kept on until 18 if they don't get their GCSEs. The Tories want them kept in primary school if they miss out on their SATs (or, at least, in a summer school). But the real challenge with the 3Rs is much younger. The most important change this term is the introduction of synthetic phonics across primaries. Gordon Brown wants that backed up with remedial teaching of six and seven year-olds who fall behind. There's nothing wrong in principle with what the Americans call 'no social promotion' - keeping youngsters back until they get key tests - but it would be much better for all concerned if we got it right at seven, rather than waiting until eleven or sixteen.

Hillary's commanding lead

Has Barack Obama's time passed? Hillary Clinton now has a commanding lead in polls for the Democratic nomination, and strong leads in key states, including New Hampshire. With Law and Order DA Arthur Branch aka Fred Thompson entering the Republican field next week, Giuliani's lead could evaporate very quickly. At the very least, attention will turn from the Democrats to the Republicans, reducing Obama's chances of a surge in popularity. What's more, Hillary is ahead of all her potential Republican rivals on the RealClearPolitics poll of polls. Giuliani is clearly her strongest opponent, which is why she must be hoping that Thompson has a good few weeks too.

Cameron's collapse continuing?

Other polls have not given Labour so generous a lead as Yougov. Unsurprisingly, a private Populus poll for the Tories puts them level-pegging. A Mori poll for the Sun gives Labour a five point lead (and still puts the party above 40%). And Peter Bradley, who lost his seat in 2005, strikes a timely cautionary note on the Progress website. But what is so interesting about the Yougov figures is not so much the Labour lead, which is a few points more than Mori, but the extent to which Brown is leading Cameron as 'best PM' and on a number of key issues. And the fact that his people are celebrating being only one point behind the party of power for the last ten years. Moreover, if Cameron plays to his party's current strengths - on law and order, and asylum - he can only do so at the expense of his previous strategy. It may appeal to the Mail's leader writers. But shifting back to the right would be fatal for him. Brown seems unlikely to call an election this year, despite the excitement on Tory websites, but he has Cameron right where he wants him.