A blog about politics, education, Ireland, culture and travel. I am Conor Ryan, Dublin-born former adviser to Tony Blair and David Blunkett on education. Views expressed on this blog are written in a personal capacity.
Sunday, 31 May 2009
Gordon was very good, but is it too late?
But with polls variously putting Labour on 16% in the European elections and 22% in national rankings, it all has a bit of a feel of too little, too late. Obviously, I hope Labour does better than the polls suggest on Thursday, and on Europe the expenses saga has utterly obscured the extremism of the Tories (in their plans to hop into bed with Europe's looniest parties rather than the moderate Christian Democrats) and the utter barminess of UKIP, a party which knows a thing or two about fiddling expenses. But the truth on Friday is that the party will be facing a huge electoral headache.
At that stage, Labour will need to decide what it does next. I am sceptical of a reshuffle whose central feature is installing Ed Balls as Chancellor, though I tend to believe little of what I read on the front page of the Sunday Times. But Brown's hint of a more bipartisan approach to government in this morning's Marr interview was more promising and is much more the direction people want after the last few weeks. He should be braver on electoral as well as democratic reform too: Cameron's cretinous suggestion that putting a new electoral system to the voters in a referendum is somehow anti-democratic exposes his plans (to cut the number of Labour MPs)in all their partisan vacuousness; Brown should be braver and openly less partisan.
It is a shame we have seen so little of the Gordon Brown we saw this morning over the last two years. But if it is a signal of a new way of doing things, it may offer a chance of some recovery after Thursday. Otherwise, there may well need to be bigger and tougher decisions made about the future leadership of the party. But it would be best for Labour and for the stability of the economy as we try to recover from the recession if we didn't need to reach that point ahead of the next election.
Saturday, 30 May 2009
Bluegrass magic
We spent a wonderful (if slightly muggy) evening listening to brilliant bluegrass as part of the Bath Music Festival last night. The star turn was the sprightly 82-year old Dr Ralph Stanley, whose music made the Coen Brothers' O Brother Where Art Thou? so memorable. Accompanied by a fine group of musicians in his Clinch Mountain Boys, Stanley provided memorable renditions of his own music, gospel standards (including a haunting rendering of Amazing Grace) finishing after a standing ovation with the O Brother favourite Man of Constant Sorrow. Support was provided by two shorter sets from the excellent Charlie Parr and the storytelling Jerry Harmon. A great evening of music all round.
Wednesday, 27 May 2009
Would Cameron really let go in No 10?
Yet this is what we were expected to believe from his speech yesterday (although he was quick to reject the one thing that might demonstrate that he really would give up some power - proportional representation). Sure, I can see that he might want to cut the number of (Labour) MPs and pretend this is a selfless gesture. And he might even want to improve select committees (though they are a lot more powerful now than in the 1990s).
But are we really expected to believe that when Cameron finally works out what he wants to do as Prime Minister, he will let opposition backbenchers and his own councillors who oppose his plans for Swedish-style schools tear it all up to make a constitutional point. Helpfully, Anne McElvoy has dispelled any such notions in a great piece in tonight's London Evening Standard which explains just how much of a control freak Democratic Dave really is. Referring to his handling of recalcitrant MPs, she tells us how the sight of his former PPS Andrew McKay 'prattling' on TV was enough for Dave to hang him out to dry and asks:
What does all this tell us about his way of running things? For one thing, that he enjoys wielding authority and can wear it without strain. He still relies on a small group of insiders in times of trouble - the attack on "sofa government" in yesterday's speech might be deemed a bit rich coming from a man whose inner team practically inhabit his office sofa.She goes on to point out that
A consistent faultline in Project Cameron is that it is both devolving and centralising at the same time, and often on the same issues. The present mood has tipped the balance - without an assessment of the impact of how it fits with other Conservative goals. That's evident when the shadow education spokesman waxes Govishly about devolving power one day - and then starts insisting on traditional subjects and uniform practices across the board the next.It is said that Tony Blair talked constitutional reform in opposition but didn't deliver in Government. Ignoring devolution to Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland, an overhaul of the House of Lords, PR in non-Westminster elections and Freedom of Information, this is what passes for informed comment among political pundits. Blair introduced huge constitutional reforms with lasting impact (as MPs shamed over expenses know). But what he also recognised was that sometimes being Prime Minister required leadership from the centre; without it, reform rarely happened and was often stymied.
The problem for Cameron is that he has been making his limited proposals sound more impressive than they are. And when it comes to delivering reforms - such as those on schools - which are disliked by a professional establishment that includes many of his own agents of localism (that's Tory councillors in old money) he'll find (should he win an election) that he'll want to use any real levers available to him as a Prime Minister to get his reforms through.
Of course, by then, yesterday's speech will be ancient history.
Monday, 25 May 2009
Johnson is right on PR
It is an elegant solution to the crisis facing our democracy and one which deserves the support of Gordon Brown. That Alan Johnson, whose tenure at health has been an unsung success, may see this as part of his post-election bid for the leadership makes it no less worthy. Labour has been playing second fiddle to Cameron's breathtakingly self-interested use of the expenses crisis for weeks now. This is the sort of measure that could both restore the party's reformist credentials - and put it back on the front foot in the political debate.
Saturday, 23 May 2009
Political parties are better for us than Esther Rantzen
The truth is that despite the fashion for extreme cynicism, politicians who stand on a platform tend to work towards achieving it, in areas as diverse as education, health, the economy and transport. Labour achieved over 80% of its manifesto commitments in its first term. The Tories with an alternative platform - given the time to formulate it - would work towards their alternative, as would the Liberal Democrats. But making politics a policyfree zone as a revenge for the moats and duck islands would lead to a lack of any such sense of purpose, substituting an ill-defined anger with politicians for the purpose of political parties. As Janice Turner puts it (pretty pointedly) about Esther Rantzen in an excellent piece in today's Times:
Do years uncommitted to a party make a celebrity admirably independent or mean that she simply couldn't subsume her ego to anything bigger than herself?So, it would be folly to call an election at a time when perspective is so skewed. Instead, the parties should clean up politics, and consider other reforms which could improve confidence in MPs (such as an alternative vote or PR allowing both protests and effective votes). At the same time, all the parties must find the space to remake the case for party politics.
It is a lot stronger than the case for Esther Rantzen.
The truth behind the Iraqi surge
Tuesday, 19 May 2009
Field or Bercow: Make a maverick moderniser Speaker
Now the Commons must find the right replacement. Talk of a stopgap Speaker to take the Commons only to the next election is ridiculous. They need someone who can carry the House through the next parliament who can command support across the House. More importantly, they need someone who can oversee the overhaul of an institution that has not only lost touch on expenses, but which too often places procedure and historical precedent above the needs and expectations of a modern democracy.
That suggests that we need a Speaker who is willing to be a reformer, rather than somebody who has become too comfortable with Commons traditions. We need someone who is not afraid to shake up the establishment but has the respect of significant numbers of MPs in all parties. And we need someone who can restore public faith in parliament at the same time.
Of course, some say it should be the Tories' turn. But are Sir Alan Haslehurst or Sir George Young really the right people for the change needed? If we want a person who commands such respect, Labour MP Frank Field and Tory MP John Bercow must be strong candidates. These two maverick MPs would each show that the Commons really does mean it when it says that it wants to restore faith in democracy.
Field would not be top of Gordon Brown's list, of course, given that he was effectively sacked for his radicalism on welfare at Brown's behest, and he has often upset his fellow Labour MPs by appearing too close to the Tories on some issues. Bercow has moved considerably leftwards since his student days and has been used by Labour to work on some education issues. But it is precisely their cross-party respect and their willingness to tilt against their own party establisments - so much so that each has been the subject of speculation about the possibility that they might cross the floor - that makes them so potentially appealing.
This post has been picked up by Iain Dale and the Guardian website.
A good time to bury Tory U-turns
So, it is a pleasant surprise to see the Tories finally admitting that they got it wrong over polyclinics, Labour's plans to improve patient services by locating a range of GPs and specialists under one roof. Needless to say it has been left to an underling, Mark Simmonds, to admit that when Lansley and his protector Cameron claimed a year ago that one in five surgeries would close as a result of the new centres opening, they were talking utter rubbish.
Perhaps the perceptive Mr Simmonds could turn his attention to his bosses' belief that patients' interests would be well served by scrapping maximum waiting times and bringing back eighties-style waiting lists?
This post has been picked up by John Rentoul and Liberal Conspiracy.
Sunday, 17 May 2009
The speaker must go
Friday, 15 May 2009
Sir Christopher Kelly must report quickly
Aside from the more egregious examples, what we have is the following:
* Some relatively minor examples of expenses and allowances which the Fees Office should not have permitted - presumably this was supposed to be the job of the trusted employee who was too busy selling the information to the Telegraph for a six-figure sum; and cases where MPs submitted longer receipts apparently to cover some allowable items on them, a distinction ignored by the Telegraph to produce more salacious headlines.
* A system where a reluctance to pay MPs a better salary has led to a sense of entitlement over allowances and expenses, leading some to claim the maximum allowance, which seems to have been actively encouraged by the fees office.
* A pig-headed attitude of some MPs which delayed necessary reforms, and which seems to have found expression in the Speaker, whose time is clearly up
* An opposition which is successfully obscuring its nakedly partisan demands for an end to the communications allowance (perhaps we could reduce opposition Short payments to an inflation-uprated equivalent of what Labour worked with pre-97 too? No, I didn't think so) and a reduction in (Labour) MPs as an act of pure selflessness.
* A government party which has lost the ability to communicate its message effectively, which has meant that it has appeared to be playing 'second fiddle' to the Tories even though its proposals have been far more sensible - and that includes the much scorned £150 daily attendance allowance - the cost of a moderate London hotel room - as an alternative to second home allowances.
* A public distaste for the main parties which is likely to see support for UKIP and the BNP increase at the local and European elections (incidentally, if Tory support falls below 30%, there is surely a real crisis for Cameron there) and which has licensed saloon bar loutishness as an 'expression of public anger.'
That seems to me to be where we are. And it needs urgent action: the three main political parties must now get their act together to agree a way forward that cleans up politics - and its appearance - in a root and branch way.
If Sir Christopher Kelly is to present the solution, he must pull his finger out. Politics can't afford a vacuum, as Sir Christopher acts as if he has been given a commission for a long-term academic research report. There is frankly no reason why he should not report well before the summer recess. Doing so is vital to restoring faith in democratic politics - and the elected politicians who, for all their faults, are vital to its operation.
Thursday, 14 May 2009
Keep tests and tables
Tuesday, 12 May 2009
Full disclosure
Well done to George Foulkes for his pricking the pomposity of BBC interviewers in this gem from News 24. MPs earn £64,000 a year; but News 24 presenters get £92,000, reveals Carrie Gracie. She will be popular in the BBC News canteen.
Monday, 11 May 2009
A conspiracy of conspiracy theorists
Conspiracy theorists tend to produce books full of apparently credible references, but the sources tend either to be other conspiracy theorists or chance media reports that have later been updated. Many theories are harmless and wacky; but beliefs in conspiracies can have hugely harmful effects, as with the Protocols (that fed Hitler's anti-semitism) and the acceptance of the Stalinist show trials by Western Communists or McCarthyism. As Aaronovitch says, the book is a brilliant antidote to the pub or dinner party bore who claims to have 'irrefutable proof' of a conspiracy. Thanks to his work, it is possible to retort credibly that 'stuff happens'. Do read it.
Pay more, end expenses
That said, the whole thing is an utter mess for MPs and very bad for the image of parliamentary politics. Like state funding of political parties, it is an example of where fear of a day or two's bad headlines has led politicians foolishly to opt for the worst possible solutions. MPs should be better paid - £100,000 a year, fully taxed, would be about what a GP earns - and get no living expenses beyond travel costs (through a railcard for all).
Political parties, already heavily funded by the taxpayer, should be largely funded by them with donations above £1000 banned. Those two simple measures might cause a day or two of synthetic outrage. But it would do more to clean up politics - and its public image - than any of the absurdly complicated alternatives being bandied about at the moment.
Thursday, 7 May 2009
A good idea from the assessment experts on transition
A reasonable way forward on testing?
Of course, it is the primary responsibility of primary schools to ensure that children know how to read, write and add up properly by the age of eleven. And the state has a duty to parents and taxpayers to make sure that they are doing so. Of course, there may be different ways of doing this - and the expert group seems wisely to be urging more piloting of the so-called progress tests that pupils would take as they are ready - but such tests must be externally set and marked. And they should be taken at least once by every pupil in every primary school.
Of course, the NAHT and NUT don't like this. But the NAHT general secretary - fresh from trumpeting his dodgy 'poll of parents' - told Today this morning that the scrapping of science 'narrows the curriculum too much'. So, he is no longer concerned to reduce the 'burden of testing'? Logically, then children should be tested in every subject, not none, as Mr Brookes admits that the presence of tests concentrates teachers' minds on getting children to pass them.
In truth, the revision that pupils do for tests in English and Maths can and should be a time to ensure that they have learnt how to read and write, and that they know their grammar, spelling, punctuation and mathematical rules. How does Mr Brookes imagine these children will get on in secondary school if they can't?If there is too much pressure on pupils, that is the fault of schools and parents, and not the tests.
But there is one respect where the expert group and those teachers' leaders who oppose a boycott may be being disingenuous, if advance reports are right: with respect to the publication of results. As a general principle in a society where freedom of information is the norm, it would be intolerable not to publish the test results. So, the results would appear in school report cards. Fine.
But there is a suggestion that the government might stop publishing the results on the same day, to avoid newspapers compiling league tables. We did, in fact, leave publication to individual local authorities in 1998 precisely for this reason, and apart from inconveniencing the education correspondents, it made no difference. The Press Association had to work a bit harder. There was less celebration of good and improving schools. So we returned to national publication.
With report cards, the newspapers will still publish the results. Surely, the DCSF must continue to make it easy for parents and others to search for any school's results on its website?
Of course, the real reason why these unions don't want the tests is not that they really think they 'damage' children. It is that they don't like the scrutiny that their publication brings. But such scrutiny has spurred so many of them to improve in recent years. The tests should stay; and their results should remain easily accessible to all.
Tuesday, 5 May 2009
Gordon brings some coherence to the Government's schools policy
It was particularly good because it was about education and schools in particular. And once it moved from the obligatory global justifications, it got down to brass tacks in a credible way. By dividing itself into themes related to leadership, teaching and the role of parents, it provide a valuable vehicle for a good number of worthwhile announcements (and justifiable reannouncements). It was, as a result, far chunkier than the advance billing.
There is to be much stronger action on failing primary schools (though the Prime Minister needlessly stops at federations for their governance). Chains of schools - already developing through academies - are to be given greater encouragement. Online reporting by schools to parents of children's progress will become the norm from 2010 in secondaries and 2012 in primaries. The importance of external primary tests was reaffirmed, along with plans for a new Report Card. Local authorities will be expected to become more the commissioners envisaged by Tony Blair in his 2005 White Paper than the managers of schools and to be responsive to parents both where they want to set up new schools and where they want new provision.
There is a much greater coherence in this menu than has been evident not only in government speeches on education of late but than there is in the Opposition's still very sketchy proposals for free schools. But there are still areas where the Government could and should go further when it finally publishes its White Paper on schools next month.
First, the academies programme and academy freedoms should be available to federations of primary schools including weaker ones (this is not actually what the Tories are proposing, and would provide a constructive contrast to their plans).
Second, although most parents may not want to set up their own schools, the Government should make sure the powers in the 2006 legislation can be used by those who do and significant parent promoters not only get local authority support to develop their plans, but they are linked to others who might be willing to take up their ideas. The extra costs need only arise with the capital proposals that are the Achilles heel of the Tory plans.
Third, if local authorities are to be expected to act in parents' interests, there must be someone with the statutory authority to force them to do so. This should be an explicit responsibility of the School Adjudicator, who already has a number of similar roles.
In the current climate, it may be that Brown's measures are treated as trivial or repetitive. And the Prime Minister could have done a little more to remind people how much has already been achieved, not least with academies. But by giving coherence to an approach to education that has recently felt haphazard, the PM has made a valiant attempt to recover the Labour initiative in this subject.
I've also written on the speech for the Progress website.
Monday, 4 May 2009
The NAHT 'poll' that shows why we need independent testing in primary schools
In the midst of the discussion, Mr Brookes informed us that his stance enjoyed the overwhelming backing of parents, according to an opinion poll that his union had done. Given that an independent Ipsos MORI survey for the DCSF showed a rather different result - and it was conducted using a representative sample of parents by a reputable polling company - I thought this a bit fishy.
So I checked the NAHT's website for more details of this 'poll.' In fact, there is no independent opinion poll. Instead, the NAHT has pulled together a self-selecting 'sample' of parents' views collected by NAHT members and collated with no attempt at weighting.
The press release issued in February even suggests that embarrassed NAHT press officers know the whole thing is a crock. "Whilst we recognise that this is not an independent survey, it represents a substantial body of opinion," they plead.
So, let's get this straight. The union which tells us that we can trust its members to tell parents exactly how well their child's school is doing in English and maths without independent national tests or published results is quite happy to defy the rules of statistics to get the data it wants, and to pretend that its data is of some value even though it shows results exactly the opposite of properly conducted independent research.
And we are supposed then to take their word that we don't need any independent look at how primary schools run by its members are performing?
Saturday, 2 May 2009
Boycotting tests would be a slap in the face to taxpayers and parents
The issue here is not whether the existing tests might be improved; they can. The Government is already reviewing them, and it is likely that the conclusion will be more tightly focused English and Maths tests. There is also merit in doing much of the testing online. Rather it is the growing view that professionals should be accountable to nobody but themselves, despite the fact that the taxpayer foots the bill (the Tories have already swallowed this view in their plans to leave doctors free of any patient-focused targets).
Having seen what happens with excessively light-touch regulation in the private sector, it is extraordinary that public servants should demand the same for themselves. Politicians of all parties should make clear that anybody boycotting the tests is in breach of their legal obligations and their duty to parents; they should do so quickly and without equivocation, and explain the consequences. Otherwise, all the gains in openness in our schools system over the last two decades will be endangered, and parents will once more find themselves excluded from a secret garden in which their enquiries are unwelcome and there is no external check on the assessments being made by teachers about their child's progress before GCSEs.
Friday, 1 May 2009
The government's worst week...since the last worst week
As for the MPs expenses saga, Gordon Brown may not have got second homes reform, but he has got big changes to London MPs' and ministers' claims; if anyone has looked bad in this saga, it is the MPs themselves. Moreover, his proposal for a flat rate linked to attendance is far more likely to work in practice than anything else I've heard, even if it upsets newspaper editors who may find themselves bereft of 'snouts in trough' copy. Brown did well with his Pakistan agenda. Britain is leaving Basra in a stronger economic position than before, a fact reported prominently in BBC coverage. And on the flu pandemic, ministers look prepared and ready, so much so that even the tabloids can't find anything to criticise beyond the delayed launch of a 'flu line.'
But much of this is beside the point. The week's events give a feeling that the Government is drifting, and this sense of drift which started with the dismal McBride antics and continued through the Budget, shows no sign of coming to an end. Charles Clarke and Bob Marshall-Andrews weighing into the PM in his time of trouble are no great surprise. But the PM would do well to heed some of the things being said by my ex-boss David Blunkett in a speech today.
Part of the speech is classic David: a plea for new localism and modern forms of self-help through micro-credit, and consumer rather than producer-based approaches, all of which could help government reconnect with people. But he is also warning against ‘turning the clock back’ and the “siren voices” who want to re-run the modernisation debates which took place in the Labour Party in the 1990s. “The old battles are over and the need for visionary action is self-evident. So talk of going back to the past, of wiping out the last two decades, is dangerous," he says.
David is right. The government needs to craft a strong message which explains the huge differences that have already been made to the public services, but shows that when it comes to ensuring the people have the choices and standards they expect, it is better placed to deliver even in a time of austerity than the Conservatives. Labour must show that it is still the party of modernisation. Next week, when Gordon Brown speaks on education, would be a good time to start getting that message across.
Wednesday, 29 April 2009
Obama's impressive 100 days
Tuesday, 28 April 2009
Will Tory councils block more academies?
But curriculum delivery may not be the only problem facing the Tories on academies and school reform. The Tories have been winning a lot more councils in recent years, which means that their local government lobby is growing ever stronger. Their education leader on the LGA and Birmingham City Council's chair of children's services, Councillor Les Lawrence, is not exactly a fan (Q81) of the Swedish schools model embraced by the Tories, as he told the schools select committee recently:
If you look at the Swedish system you see that there is now quite a lot of debate as to whether the free school system has caused a degree of dissent and division within the communities themselves. As I understand it, looking at recent debates in Sweden, they are beginning to wonder whether they need to go in the opposite direction, having been through the experiment-it has taken them about 20 years to create 900 of these schools, separate from the other more traditional schools.And Labour MPs have pointed to examples of Tory councils blocking academies. My former home council of Merton has been a particular problem in this regard since the Tories regained it, as local MP Siobhain McDonagh reminded the Commons yesterday when she pointed to academies, one of them supported by the Tory peer and philanthropist Lord Harris, that were opposed by local Tory councillors who didn't want more good schools in the less advantaged part of the borough:
In 2006, we opened two new city academies in Mitcham in my constituency, in the teeth of fierce opposition from the Conservative councillors. Those two schools have now doubled the number of pupils getting five GCSE passes. Will my right hon. Friend congratulate the sponsors, Lord Harris and the Church of England, as well as all the staff and the pupils at those schools? Will he also warn people that although those on the Conservative Front Bench may have converted to supporting academies, Conservative local councillors on the ground do not want schools in deprived areas?Similar problems have apparently emerged in Dudley and with the Tory opposition group in Rotherham. The opposition front bench may wish to give promoters the right to sidestep such opposition and could simply remove the right of local authorities to establish new community schools, but that may not be enough. Local government still has a lot of say in planning decisions and owns a lot of sites for potential schools.
Indeed one reason why academies have taken off - including in Birmingham - is because the Government has persuaded local government that they are an important part of regeneration in their areas and got them on side. The Tories need to be clear what role they see for local government in their schools policies if they are serious about delivering them.
Monday, 27 April 2009
Harriet is right: The poor should have better access to good schools
For that to happen however requires more than a duty on local authorities (indeed they may simply resort to bureaucratically ineffective solutions). Instead, ministers should revisit and revitalise the proposals in the 2005 schools white paper in this respect.
It argued for greater use of 'fair banding' so that schools attracted a broad intake - and were open to pupils of all backgrounds and abilities. This is something many academies do, and which some London authorities use for admissions, and is less contentious than 'lotteries'. Without fair banding, choice for poorer families is often a chimera given catchment areas.
The second proposal, for community choice advisers should focus on recruiting more trusted people from local communities for a fixed period each year to help their fellow citizens make better choices. With subsequent legislation having given pupils free transport to a choice of schools, there is the possibility of some real action in this regard.
Saturday, 25 April 2009
Listen to Christy
So it is a pleasure to be able to report that Christy has recorded his finest album in decades, with Listen, just released. I've listened to it three times and it is as familiar now as his much-played earlier titles. Recorded with Declan Sinnott, the album contains thirteen great songs including a great rendering of Pink Floyd's Shine On You Crazy Diamond, a wonderfully whimsical tribute to the Galway Races in the Ballad of Ruby Walsh. There are powerfully lyrical but poignant stories of migration in Does this Train Stop on Merseyside? (which John Peel used to like) and Duffy's Cut (recalling the tragic death of Irish labourers in Malvern in 1832), together with a great rendering of John Spillane's Gortatagort. It all ends with a lively tribute to Rory Gallagher. This is Christy in top form again.
Labour should support primary academies that help weak schools
Labour's academies programme - for that's what it is - is successfully raising standards in many secondary schools, and there is no reason why it shouldn't be extended to primary schools. Indeed, with 3-18 academies, there are already primary schoolchildren attending academies under Labour and benefiting from a closer working relationship with secondary schools, easing transition problems.
The problem with the Tories' proposal is not that they want the programme extended to primaries but how they want to target the programme. By focusing on the most successful primaries, they will do little to lift standards in the schools that need it most.
A clever Labour response would have welcomed the Tory embrace of Labour academies, but argued that part of the deal should be that those given academy freedoms had to work with a poorly performing primary school. Labour ought also to question how the Tories' - correct - support for synthetic phonics would work with complete curriculum freedom.
Instead we get an uncharacteristically sour contribution from Jim Knight which would leave the listener thinking that academies were not a Labour success story, but a Tory plot, with the silly statement that the plan "will send a chill down the spines of parents and teachers around the country."
The only spines feeling any chill this morning will be those of thoughtful Labour supporters who know that scoring own goals is not the way to win elections.
This posting has been quoted in the Daily Telegraph.
Wednesday, 22 April 2009
State of Play
We saw Paul Abbott's magnificent newspaper-political thriller State of Play tonight. The film adaptation transplanted to a thinly disguised Washington Post newsroom casts Russell Crowe as the crusading journalist conflicted by his friendship with the ostensibly right on crusading congressman Stephen Collins (Ben Affleck) whose world starts to fall apart after the death of his mistress and researcher. Having seen the great BBC TV series on which this is based is no handicap in watching this taut thriller, with other fine performances from Helen Mirren as the newspaper editor, Robin Wright Penn as Collins's wife and Rachel McAdams as a cub reporter-cum- newspaper blogger. The complex conspiracy theory plot is leavened with some great lines about the world of newspapers and blogging, as Crowe gives another brilliant turn as the old-fashioned reporter in the battered car and dated computer, but the right instincts. The film will hold your attention throughout with Kevin Macdonald's taut direction.
Is the tax rise good politics?
The story will be around the increased tax on high earners, some of which was announced in the pre-budget report, which means that those over £150k a year lose higher income pension tax relief and pay 50% on earnings above that level from April 2010, and those above £100k have their taxes increased as a result of the removal of their tax-free allowances.
There are three questions to be asked about the strategy. The first is whether it will raise much money. It can reasonably be argued that the extra millions or even billions it does raise each year is financing useful measures such as the extra training for the unemployed or college places. But the same extra revenue could be raised in many other ways without touching basic rate tax.
The second is whether it is fairer. And on that score, it is hard to argue against the changes, as it is being targeted at the top 2% of income earners. The system is certainly more progressive.
But is it good politics - the third and trickiest question? On the one hand, it puts the Tories on the spot, and they have been careful not to announce any repudiation of the measure even though they know they could do so at relatively little financial cost. Doing so would paint them as on the side of the rich, a group that includes traders and bankers whose unpopularity knows no bounds. Moreover, it would hardly fit with their cost-cutting lectures on public services. So, as a 'dividing line' it is probably good politics. And the Tories would be wiser taking Danny Finkelstein's prescient advice on this score than Iain's instant reaction.
However, whether it is good politics for Labour in the long term is another matter. It may well be popular with some of the party's base support and Guardian columnists. But an important part of New Labour's promise and success has been that it would not raise taxation, and until November, the party kept to its promise (albeit with a 1% rise in national insurance). The politics of doing so was not particularly about attracting the very rich to vote Labour: their proportions were always going to be very small and their support smaller. It was more about making Labour attractive to the aspirational middle, business-owning and professional classes, particularly in London and the South East. And while most would never earn more than £100k in 1997 - the level that some wanted at the time - or £150k now, they might aspire to do so.
At a time of recession, it is easier - as Obama has done in America - to justify raising taxes on a better off minority. It is hard for anyone to argue with higher taxes on the highest earners at present and to sound unselfish in doing so. So it may prove initially popular. But the willingness to increase the top rate of tax could make it harder in the future for Labour to build the sort of coalition that kept it in power for three terms. And that may mean that any short term political gain has longer lasting political pain.
This posting has been picked up by Iain Dale and the Observer.
A good budget for colleges
Who's right on NEETs?
UPDATE: I'm pleased to see that the Chancellor has recognised this in his Budget plans to guarantee jobs or training to the long term youth unemployed.
Gordon Brown's plans on MPs' expenses are spot on
Of course, the media hate them. There will be no more receipts to trawl through or houses to inspire envy. The Sunday 'newspapers' will be bereft. But that's also why it is right. British MPs are not especially well rewarded compared to other parliamentarians. But the system they created for expenses couldn't have been more cockeyed especially for our FoI times.
Brown's simple but fair proposals - even if they upset those who wanted to spend months hammering out compromises in committee - are just the job. MPs should get on and introduce them quickly. Doing so can only improve faith in them in the long term.
Tuesday, 21 April 2009
Happy talk - behind the UK's 'dismal record' for children
Now, having read some of his work, I think Professor Bradshaw is pretty good at his job. He can write reasonably well aside from occasional lapses into jargon - which can't always be said for academics - and has developed a perfectly reasonable theory about how to measure relative childhood happiness and quality of life across countries. But it is just that: a theory. Yet it is being treated as irrefutable fact despite his league tables (as with the UNICEF report) giving equal weight to different things that few would regard as of equal importance or reliability. The CPAG report doesn't tell you anything about Professor Bradshaw's weighting of different aspects; in order to understand why the UK does so badly, one has to understand his weighting. To do that you need to fork out $34 for an article he wrote with Dominic Richardson of the OECD (in an independent capacity) in a journal called Child Indicators Research, published earlier this month.
The research splits 43 indicators into 19 components across 7 domains, giving each domain equal weight. There, you find, for example, that the reason the UK does poorly on child health is because of its relatively low childhood immunisation rates. These are given equal weight to infant mortality and to something called 'health behaviour' based on questions to children about whether they brush their teeth, are too fat or eat apples. The UK is apparently doing fairly well on these latter scores, but has been downgraded by its low immunisation rates. I wonder which newspaper and which morning current affairs programme has most to answer for on that score?
Then, there's something called "subjective wellbeing" - which is ranked as importantly as health or education. This has three components - each one three times as important to a country's score as whether kids can read properly. These are "personal wellbeing - the percentage of children reporting high life satisfaction" - whatever that means; wellbeing at school - whether children "feel pressure at school" (bad, apparently) or "like school a lot" (good); and 'self-defined health" - whether children think they are healthy. Each of these three subjective components is ranked more importantly than whether a country's babies die in infancy. Anyway, needless to say, British kids score below average on this lot. But it is comforting to learn that in league table-free Finland, regarded as the best education system by many, children feel just as much pressure and are just as likely not to like school as their British counterparts. The authors tell us this is because "educational attainment may be a well-becoming indicator rather than a well-being indicator." I did warn you Prof Bradshaw was guilty of occasional lapses into jargon.
Next up is relationships. There are just two components here, each worth considerably more to a country's ranking than good literacy or low infant mortality. And as Britain is slightly above average here, we probably shouldn't complain. But it is again subjective and is based on the percentage of children who "find it easy to talk to" their parents and who find their classmates "kind and helpful." In case you were wondering, France is not a good place for this sort of thing. I trust President Sarkozy has a taskforce on the case already.
Then we turn to material wellbeing, which is based on relative poverty indices, measures of deprivation and children in workless households. This seems, like health, to be a reasonably objective indicator. Children in the UK are, apparently, among the most likely to be living in workless households, but the authors tell us this does not mean they are lacking in consumer durables (colour TVs, computers or cars) or under severe economic strain. The next 'domain' is risk and safety. The three components here are 'violence and violent behaviour' (fighting or experiencing bullying), child deaths and risky behaviour (early intercourse, smoking, drugs, drunkenness). Surprisingly, perhaps, the UK does a bit better on this list, being brought down by youthful drunkenness, but having a relatively low number of child deaths.
Then we turn to education. The UK gained slightly above average PISA scores (among the countries in this report) in literacy, numeracy and science (though the combination of these is only worth the same as each of the subjective questions above). The other two components are educational participation of 15-19 year-olds and in pre-school and NEET rates (those not in work, education or training). Since there is an obvious correlation between post-16 participation and NEETs, the authors have chosen to give half of the education score to this aspect of education. There is no mention of university participation, where the UK does well. And the relatively high pre-school participation rates, where the UK is also doing much better than many - and which most researchers would regard as the most crucial element - are apparently worth just a third as much as 16-19 participation/NEETs. That is the authors' choice but this is not an accurate representation of any education system. There is a final domain for housing issues, which is a second poverty grouping.
In their academic article, the authors themselves show how easy it is to manipulate the data - and, to be fair, are happy to offer it to anyone else wanting to do so. They pick just seven indicators - child immunisation, 'high life satisfaction', talking to dads, lack of educational possessions, recent bullying, maths scores and houses with housing problems and the UK finds itself up in 18th position instead of 24th, ahead now of France and Italy.
I have no quibble with researchers reporting these indicators and highlighting where Britain ranks according to each one of them. I also think it is important that young people's voices are heard - as is increasingly the case in schools. But I worry about arbitrary weightings which give far more weight to subjective - and perhaps culturally sensitive - questions than to matters of life and death or pretty basic educational outcomes. The CPAG should publish all this information on its website, but if the media weren't so keen on talking our country down, they might actually explain the arbitary nature of these rankings - and own up where our low rankings reflected their own efforts rather than the policies of the government.
This post has been picked up by John Rentoul.
Monday, 20 April 2009
Children in care need pushy 'parents'
But one of the biggest differences could be made by having more dedicated adults - individual people who are advocates but not necessarily social workers - who take individual young people under their wing and keep with them through their years of growing up, regardless of where they are placed. The 'lead professional' proposed by the Government is too often likely to change. The young people need someone who consistently acts as their advocate - and there are good advocates around - and can push bureaucracies to work in their favour as much as any pushy middle class parent. And good as the select committee report is, one must fear that if the Government pays too much attention to its bureaucratic recommendations like
We recommend that all Children’s Trusts take responsibility for multi-agency corporate parenting training, to include managers within adult ealth and social care services, and officers and members of district councils where relevant......and too little to the need to address this concern identified in one of its own reports
Children and young people often say that they want better and more consistent relationships with the professionals who work with them. Far more than other children, children in care have to relate to a wide range of different professionals and learn to deal with different people coming in and out of their lives.....then young people in care will continue to lose out no matter how much multi-agency corporate parenting training goes on.
Saturday, 18 April 2009
The ghost of GBH at work in Erith?
Friday, 17 April 2009
Test and publish
But behind the headlines there are two problems. The first is a headache for Ed Balls. He wants to move to a system of testing when ready, which would probably involve teachers in more work than the current tests, as there would be several testing opportunities each year; though the NASUWT objections are also to the NUT's absurd idea that the tests should be marked by the teachers themselves. There are good arguments for the Balls change, as well as the status quo.
There is a second problem that should worry us all. Keep tests, but scrap tables, say NASUWT. DCSF doesn't itself publish league tables. Its search engine directs you to individual school results. You can also see in an alphabetical list how those results compare with other schools if you search by local authority. Newspapers compile the tables using discs supplied by the DCSF. What NASUWT is demanding is that the government censors the information it supplies newspapers and the public. That is no more tenable than ditching the tests.
Lenny Henry is a powerful Othello